【LPI 8621 交流专区】伦平

Mr.Business

摘录自<道是道亦非道，明是明亦非明>

原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 2-11-2007 04:49 PM 发表
懒惰开一个贴。。。
就在你中心乱乱吹水。。。
今天买了几个真字。

1023 - 押了RM 11.00
1295F - 押了RM 11.00
1295 -押了RM 10.80
8621 - 押了RM 11.60

留下30%后备钱。迟点再博大小。

原帖由 NoRehearsal 于 9-11-2007 05:09 AM 发表
GOOD LUCK!
8621 - 押在RM 11.4.
不知大大目标价, 或目标年回报率在多少.

原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 9-11-2007 09:45 AM 发表
这个只是巩固我的城池，不会轻易就卖的公司。
在我的组合里，我需要一些比较强Cashflow的公司，可以不断提供一些DY给我。
那么在我攻打别的城池不利的时候，我的后备还在。
LPI就做到这一点了。

原帖由 财散人聚 于 9-11-2007 10:15 AM 发表
这个该是你的龙脉，你的粮仓吧。。。。。

原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 9-11-2007 10:28 AM 发表
哎呀。。。说来还真惭愧。。。
这个粮仓只是能够抗跌，稳定逐步前进，无法开番。
真正的龙脉，是抗跌，强劲的现金生产力，和能够在最短时间就开番的。
我还有很长很长的路要走。。。

原帖由 NoRehearsal 于 9-11-2007 10:20 PM 发表
哈哈, 没有对目标回报率的判断, 又怎么能知道会不会保本?

既然有把握保本, 预期的回报率至少是高过银行利率吧.

Uncle Ho也讲过, "费了很多时间精力分析, 那至少要高过银行利率的两倍才值得下手吧".

近年LPI的EPS Growth 大概是 ~18%,Cash Cow, 粗略来看, 它的投资长期回报率也在这附近.

哈哈, 这样会不会太简化了?

原帖由 财散人聚 于 11-11-2007 11:35 PM 发表
哈哈哈。。。。。你说的都对。。。。我也同意你的看法。。。。只不过。。。。。保本只是一个指标。。。。这样看来，股价的目标价似乎又不是priority 了。。。。

原帖由 NoRehearsal 于 12-11-2007 11:01 AM 发表
是啊, 目标价不是重点.

还是生意本身重要,

投资LPI我只是个follower,

还要时时等大大们的见解, 静静听.

谢谢!

原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 12-11-2007 12:10 PM 发表

我不敢乱乱讲话了。。。要不然带人去荷兰我都不知道。。。


我加码LPI的原因是：
1）这间公司能够给我稳定的DY，所以作为我投资组合的Foundation / Base非常重要。
2）Business Model够简单，因为公司的确不需要有太多的开销，而超强的Under-writing和Re-investment能力，就足以把大部份赚到的钱退会给股东。
3）在马来西亚的Financial Plan里，保险业会逐步开放，Bank Negara在保险业的Control会逐步减少。那时侯，谁最厉害，谁就走更快，更厉害。这个是中长期的成长。
4）最后，生意稳定，有Pbbank在后，LPI哪怕没生意？当Project Base和Construction Base的经济开始起步时，General Insurance相对来说，也会得益。

老实说，我没有特定的目标价格。

原帖由 蚂蚁小弟 于 12-11-2007 12:16 PM 发表
个人认为：
为稳定的DY的投资者，没有目标价格是很正常的
只要你有信心以你的买价，每年能得到一定%的DY，那么就是GOGOGO了。

Mr.Business

新闻。

Saturday November 24, 2007

Insurance sector abuzz over RBC

Comment by Darjit Dhesi

The current buzzword in the insurance industry is risk-based capital (RBC) framework. Almost everyone within and outside the industry, including regulators, insurers and even the layman, are talking about it.

What does RBC, which has been strongly emphasised by Bank Negara recently, mean and how will its implementation benefit consumers?

Among others, the framework, like in developed economies, requires an insurer to maintain a capital adequacy level that commensurates with its risk profile by Jan 1, 2009. But those who are ready can do so next year with the central bank's approval.

The RBC framework aims to create a strong risk management culture and boost public confidence in the insurance industry, which is currently lacking.

Policyholders can be assured of greater protection as only the stronger capitalised companies would remain in operation under the framework. The premiums paid periodically by the public would go to the right hands to ensure that the monies are well utilised for better protection.

Apart from enhancing the risk management practices of insurers, the framework would, at the same time, make them more accountable and responsible for the products they sell.

The boards of directors, too, among others, must ensure that the companies protect consumer interest at all times.

The current penetration rate of life insurance is about 40%. The implementation of the framework will be a catalyst for increasing the rate as the public would then have more confidence in the industry.

Insurers would also be given more freedom to launch innovative products that are more competitively and fairly priced in accordance with market needs, as they would be accorded regulatory flexibility under the RBC framework.

From the industry's standpoint, more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are expected to take place and this bodes well for the industry because only the stronger capitalised companies would continue to operate.

As one CEO puts it: “Only the fittest will survive.” It would also potentially bring the local industry to international standards.

Insurance companies that have good risk-management systems are expected to be given more incentives, including greater flexibility in selling higher risk products.

One of the key challenges facing insurance companies striving to be RBC compliant would be determining an appropriate internal capital adequacy ratio (CAR).

To achieve an appropriate CAR, companies must consider, among others, factors like corporate governance, integrity of people and internal practices, compliance to rules and regulations, and claims reserving practices, apart from potential threats that could affect the financial condition of the insurer.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 21&sec=business

无花

近日公布的报告, MAA PAN GLOBAL 等都在亏钱,看来今年的保险业不是很好.
我想还有一个原因是这些亏钱的公司都没有银行做后盾或者结盟.靠自己的话做杂险比较难.
不知道生意先生是否认同??

Mr.Business

MAA的帐目比较复杂，我不是看得很明白。我大约注意到是MAA在30/09/2007的季度亏损的原因是她的investment income减少很多， management expense增加很多。Finance cost也增加了；普险反而是赚钱的 (在30/09/2006的季度MAA的普险是亏钱的)。

至于PANGLOBAL BERHAD，她基本上是间烂公司，哈。我看了她的业绩报告，她的保险业务其实是赚钱的，是其他业务亏大钱。她的首九个月(30/09/2007结束)的保险业的revenue是RM70.639 million而盈利是RM8.539 million。值得一提是PANGLOBAL已经把保险业定为Discontinued operation了，打算尽快卖出。

总结：MAA和PANGLOBAL BERHAD亏损是因为公司本身的问题，不是保险业的问题。

原帖由 无花 于 1-12-2007 07:56 AM 发表
我想还有一个原因是这些亏钱的公司都没有银行做后盾或者结盟.靠自己的话做杂险比较难.
不知道生意先生是否认同??

关于无花兄这看法，我是绝对同意的。这就是所谓的captive market，是大势所趋。不是国际业者，没有银行做后盾，只是国内业者，迟早被淘汰。

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 1-12-2007 04:32 PM 编辑 ]

mjchua

8621	LPI	16,000	176,320.00	03/08/2007	11.020
8621	LPI	8,000	78,000.00	07/08/2007	9.750
8621	LPI	10,000	113,000.00	01/10/2007	11.300
8621	LPI	280,000	3,192,000.00	04/10/2007	11.400
8621	LPI	50,000	575,000.00	11/10/2007	11.500
8621	LPI	260,000	3,092,300.00	29/10/2007	11.893
8621	LPI	370,000	4,329,000.00	30/10/2007	11.700
8621	LPI	268,000	3,068,600.00	06/11/2007	11.450

无花

RM '000                        2005         2006        9M2007
--------------------------------------------------------------
Revenue                     434,763      473,490       447,477
Operating Profit             99,521      106,637        84,664
Profit before tax           103,560      110,182        86,889
Profit attributable
to equity holder             74,703       78,128        62,560
--------------------------------------------------------------
Earnings per share (sen)      55.10        56.64         45.44
Dividend per share (sen)      70.00       105.00         30.00

[ 本帖最后由 无花 于 6-12-2007 09:01 PM 编辑 ]

无花

楼上是我从报告上抄出来的数据,如第四季无意外,看来LPI今年的业绩会比去年好些.

如果第四季开个好成绩,股息自然是不会少.

还是一个月LPI就要宣布成绩兼派息了,如果看好的可以淮备去马了!!

Mr.Business

Kurnia Asia过于集中在车险，所以最近不是很好过。LPI的业务就平均得多了。。。

Kurnia Asia to shift focus to non-motor policies
The general insurer wants to see contribution from the motor segment cut to 85 per cent of the group's current fiscal year revenue

By Jeeva Arulampalam         

Published: 2007/12/24

GENERAL insurer Kurnia Asia Bhd will be shifting its focus from motor policies to non-motor policies for the coming year.

Its unit Kurnia Insurans (M) Bhd is looking to release 10 non-motor products that are in different stages of development, said Kurnia Insurans chief executive officer Kong Shu Yin.

The beefing up of non-motor products is part of Kurnia Insurans re-organisation that will see motor contribution reducing to 85 per cent of the group's current fiscal year revenue.

For the first quarter of financial year ending June 30 2008, 89 per cent of Kurnia Asia's RM291.4 million revenue came from motor policies.

"The re-organisation is where we put in a lot more emphasise on distribution and marketing of non-motor policies such as medical insurance," Kong told reporters recently after Kurnia Asia's annual general meeting in Petaling Jaya.

Kurnia Asia saw net profits drop 96 per cent to RM1.15 million for financial year 2007 from FY06 due to depressed underwriting results impacted by slower vehicle sales.

The slower vehicle sales was caused by the implementation of National Automotive Policy.

While Kurnia Asia targets a gross net premium growth of five to eight per cent, it is also looking at at a claims ratio of 63 to 65 per cent for its present fiscal year.

For FY07, the claims ratio had weaken from 74.3 per cent to 86.2 per cent partly due to the lower earned premium base recorded for that fiscal year.

Kong said Kurnia Insurans current corporate transformation programme was focusing on two core functions which includes claims management and agency management.

"The programme is aimed at reducing claims leakages, improving claims services and increasing the agents' productivity," he said.

Kurnia Asia, with an overall market share of 14.5 per cent, has set a distant target of 30 per cent market share.

However, Kurnia Asia managing director and chief executive officer Datuk Adrian Loh said the short term target was to see it rise to 18 per cent within three to five years.

Since its FY07 gross premium income of RM1.1 billion was one-ninth of the industry's total, the company will have to look at acquisitions to achieve its 30 per cent market share target.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/Industries/Insurance/jerneh.xml/Article/

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 28-12-2007 06:55 PM 编辑 ]

无花

LPI 最大最成功的投资就是持有大众银行,我们知道大众前九个月业绩不错,整年的业绩更可超越去.大众叫好,LPI自然水涨船高!!!!

生意人,11.60的时候我又进货了!!!  <--------纯SHOW OFF, 无他意!!

[ 本帖最后由 无花 于 28-12-2007 07:48 PM 编辑 ]

Mr.Business

恭喜恭喜。LPI将是我拿零用钱 (股息)的地方，不过暂时不打算再买进了。希望一月LPI会宣布RM１的股息，哈。。。

无花

本人看好大众!!
去年年中20仙,今年年中25仙,去年年终40仙,今年我想有45仙!!如果派45仙的话,LPI手中又多了一大笔现金!!
我想最后这笔钱又是派出来的,反正手上都有了大众,所以我不买PBB,转买LPI ! 间接收他两次息!!   <---自我安慰一下

goodluck88

原帖由 无花 于 28-12-2007 07:46 PM 发表
LPI 最大最成功的投资就是持有大众银行,我们知道大众前九个月业绩不错,整年的业绩更可超越去.大众叫好,LPI自然水涨船高!!!!

生意人,11.60的时候我又进货了!!!   

无花你的RM11.60是即时买的?前几天?

无花

12月中买的,应该是十多号吧

再考滤要不要将手中的多多全部放掉换成大众和伦平.

[ 本帖最后由 无花 于 29-12-2007 01:09 AM 编辑 ]

brandbuster

也有同感,但多多還沒到我的TARGET PRICE, 還在持有中.

无花

TP 多少??? 5.60 ??

brandbuster

哇靠,你怎麼知道?

Mr.Business

上个财政年，LPI是于03/01/2007宣布业绩和股息，所以我猜测LPI将于这个星期三 (02/01/2008)宣布业绩和股息。

Mr.Business

2007年的最后一天。。。

LPI
(8621) 17:15:40
Last Done        12.100
Change        0.000
Day High        12.100
Day Low        12.000
Best Buy        12.000
Best Sell        12.100
Volume(Lot)        451

无花

03/01/2007      Open     RM  9.40
31/12/2007      Close    RM 12.10
-----------------------------------------------
                                      +RM  2.70 (28.7%)

[ 本帖最后由 无花 于 1-1-2008 12:41 AM 编辑 ]

无花

生意佬,今天没公布业绩!!!

你衰左!!!   (7:30PM)

[ 本帖最后由 无花 于 2-1-2008 07:24 PM 编辑 ]