【TONGHER 5010 交流专区】东和资源

pya_ch

原帖由 8years 于 8-10-2007 05:55 PM 发表
跟银行借钱咯。比如说：overdraft ,lc, and etc.....
有时做生意要周转的。

对啊,突然间增加这么多,
看了有点怕怕
而且我边看jackphang的帖,
边看年报,
然后才知道,欠帐未收的款项也增加这么多
不过暂时还没有感觉到做假的可能,
股息快快来吧,安抚我这不安的心
毕竟我打算接下来暂时只买它了:@

[ 本帖最后由 pya_ch 于 8-10-2007 06:24 PM 编辑 ]

chon

为什么只买它，难道马股没有另外的公司好过它！

没其他意思！只是不明白！

8years

??????????????
Trade receivables                45,012                 43,138
06dec 和 07jun 的比较，
到底那里有增加？？？

建议你看回8k前辈的举债投资megan一帖，哪里可以学到很多东西，什么是t&r增加那里讲的比较清楚，tongher的t&r非常非常健康。

t&r是2个quater的profit,这非常正常。

8years

还有，t&r是turnover的1/4，是非常健康的。

chon

请问８年和pya_ch兄，东和半年业绩的EPS高达５０SEN左右，
估计全年可能达到８０SEN－９０SEN，如此高的EPS为什么它的价格
仅仅在RM６，４０左右，是不是市场不看好？

pya_ch

原帖由 8years 于 8-10-2007 06:52 PM 发表
??????????????
Trade receivables                45,012                 43,138
06dec 和 07jun 的比较，
到底那里有增加？？？

建议你看回8k前辈的举债投资megan一帖，哪里可以学到很多东西，什么是t&r增加那里讲的比较清楚，ton ...

我看的数据是consolidated balance sheet,
按jackphang的教学帖是包含了子公司的帐目,
所以06年的数据是52,357,712
    05年的数据是27,011,369
我有把klse.8k前辈的旧帖影印出来,
有好几百张,看过了,
但是有些仍要时间消化,
我会加油的
蛮感谢你还有uncle ho的,
最近教了我不少,
只是我需要时间去学习,
还有糊涂兄,太多了,数不尽,
谢谢大家,希望大家多交流灌水
好久没见uncle cinchai,
以前觉得他的帖很无理头,
可是现在重看,
似乎又有了不同的体会,
希望你们这些前辈多多提携我们这班小辈

[ 本帖最后由 pya_ch 于 12-10-2007 06:39 PM 编辑 ]

pya_ch

原帖由 chon 于 8-10-2007 07:12 PM 发表
请问８年和pya_ch兄，东和半年业绩的EPS高达５０SEN左右，
估计全年可能达到８０SEN－９０SEN，如此高的EPS为什么它的价格
仅仅在RM６，４０左右，是不是市场不看好？

也许是忽略,
也许是因为价高没人炒,
原因太多了,可是你要相信股市就是有这样的事,
你问我为什么只买东和,
其实很主观,只因为我自己目前最看好它,
所以就只买它,当然,如果发现更好的,
或者它的价格已经不吸引我了,
我就会转移目标

chon

Pya_ch兄，我想请教一点关于EPS和股价的一点难题。

不知你介意吗？

8years

06年的数据是52,357,712
05年的数据是27,011,369
这你也要看turnover有没有变大啊。生意增加大了，当然t&r就必需变大的啦

要看变化，要看%，不是figure。要比较必需要灵活，不能只看一面，要看多面。

kiaoka

Trade Receivable - Other 和 Other Receivable - Other 有明显的增加。这里的Other究竟是谁？Any hint?

stereo

原帖由 pya_ch 于 8-10-2007 03:45 PM 发表
过去五年的平均Gross Profit Margin
209,262/956,872(000)=21.87%

过去五年的平均Net Profit Margin
161,308/956,872(000)=16.86%

不过我发现公司的债务增加了超级多,
在什么地方我们能知道钱是借来做 ...

很明显这笔钱是借来买货的，inventories 从05年的 RM55，952，682增加到 RM129，478，536
在06年Q4开始镍价就开始猛涨了，我想是原料涨价的问题。
问题是为什么公司要利用贷款来买货？
或许是东和以现金交易的关系，在供不应求的情况导致镍价上涨，很多厂家都拿不到货。
很自然的，在这样的情况下谁有CASH就有货供应。
当时镍价保持上升的趋势，所以公司先用贷款进货，保留CASH以防万一，这样同时也可以吸引供应商，确保货源充足。
(以上只是个人仙家，希望可以共研究)

pya_ch

原帖由 chon 于 8-10-2007 07:39 PM 发表
Pya_ch兄，我想请教一点关于EPS和股价的一点难题。

不知你介意吗？

拜托,我也是新人,
这样说会给8years他们笑的
有什么就问吧,
即使我不会答,
8years他们也能为你解答的

原帖由 8years 于 8-10-2007 07:54 PM 发表
06年的数据是52,357,712
05年的数据是27,011,369
这你也要看turnover有没有变大啊。生意增加大了，当然t&r就必需变大的啦

要看变化，要看%，不是figure。要比较必需要灵活，不能只看一面，要看多面。

哦,是我疏忽了,
被吓傻了
谢谢解答

原帖由 stereo 于 9-10-2007 12:28 AM 发表

很明显这笔钱是借来买货的，inventories 从05年的 RM55，952，682增加到 RM129，478，536
在06年Q4开始镍价就开始猛涨了，我想是原料涨价的问题。
问题是为什么公司要利用贷款来买货？
或许是东和以现金交 ...

有理的分析,
就是仙家也做了功课

[ 本帖最后由 pya_ch 于 9-10-2007 12:36 PM 编辑 ]

chon

[quote]原帖由 pya_ch 于 9-10-2007 12:30 PM 发表

拜托,我也是新人,
这样说会给8years他们笑的
有什么就问吧,
即使我不会答,
8years他们也能为你解答的

pya_ch兄你太谦虚La！
看了你对TONGHER的研究，都就快变成半个专家。
不过我已将个问题放在＜８年的投资组合＞里。
欢迎你来给点意见。

Chon敬上

pya_ch

我本来想长期持有的，不过中过titan的招，想一想为什么tongher的pe会那么低，就去深入查证一下，发现nikel的价钱跌太快，太多。就明白了原因。

最严重的是tongher的inventory里有差不多三个月的货（versus sales）。那么这些价值如果减半的话。。。。。。。。。

再加上有一条管理层再卖股，让我更确定了第三季业绩应该会很坏。

所以才卖股。

我依然非常喜欢tongher，我应该还会再买入，不过我需要看第三季财报，我要看看价格跌那么多对tongher到底影响几大，那时候才决定要不要买进。

by 8years
这是八年大大对东和资源近期股价疲若的分析,
对不起了八年大大,借来用一用,
所以看了我帖子春心荡漾的投资者们,
自己看这里办事吧,我想我该是省吃俭用的时候了,
可是最近怎么红炸弹特别多
而且都是大张的

8years

tongher依然是好股，只是需要观察第三季的成绩有几坏才能决定几时进场。第三季好像会宣布派股息，所以应该可以帮忙扶持股价。

pya_ch

原帖由 8years 于 13-10-2007 11:18 AM 发表
tongher依然是好股，只是需要观察第三季的成绩有几坏才能决定几时进场。第三季好像会宣布派股息，所以应该可以帮忙扶持股价。

没办法,我没有你的经验,
只能够认准,然后逢跌买进,
连大大你都悲观了,
不现在存钱还等什么
而且我怕它成了我第二只maybulk,
看到它今天的价位,
我只能哀叹,当时经验太少,
(而且当时是持股比例最重的,
一万五千左右的本钱大约有一万 )
否则已经开了一番有多了,
所以我选择猜测,但是不做反应,
反正现在的本益比仍然很低,
只要是被低估的就可以买进,
然后收长期,我现在就要学习纸上盈余收长期,
说真的,最近一直读8K的旧帖,
只要自己一害怕了,
就去看他以前举的例子,
不知道什么时候能再见他的风采,
话说回来,如果历史是一面镜子,
那马股还有六个交易日就要定生死了,
当然历史归历史,即使这次我的预测成真,
我也不卖了,上次就是因为看到三个月平均值往下掉了,
然后预言熊市来了,
就快快的把纸上盈余最多的卖掉
现在,只要目标不到决不卖,
掉我就补,就不信它能掉个十年八载的不起:@



[ 本帖最后由 pya_ch 于 13-10-2007 02:31 PM 编辑 ]

pya_ch

最近我在考虑打电话到东和问点问题,
现在还在思考看看有什么问题要问,
大家有没有什么想问的,
顺便一起吧,
反正我也可以多了解一些

pya_ch

天啊,我竟然手抖冒冷汗
不过还是问了我想知道的问题,
可惜似乎不太能够透露什么,
只是要我到bursa的网站看看,
以下是我的对话记录:
问:请问你会中文吗?
答:对不起,我不会
听到这儿,冷汗直留...
问:除了the.com,还有没有什么地方能够多了解公司的情况?
答:我们公司的网站正在整理当中.
问:那我能不能知道主席的一些资料?
答:你可以到Bursa的网站,通过annual report得到.
问:哦,我知道,我有下载了,只是我想知道的更多.
答:不好意思,年报里已经有我们主席的资料,至于网站仍在整理当中,
或许到时候会有更多.
问:哦,那没关系,谢谢
答:客气了
这就是通话过程,在之前会有operator接电话,然后才转线,
8k说的对,这真的是很好的体验,不然我也不知道自己这么窝囊,
到现在还不能平复

Mr.Business

原帖由 pya_ch 于 18-10-2007 12:19 PM 发表
天啊,我竟然手抖冒冷汗
不过还是问了我想知道的问题,
可惜似乎不太能够透露什么,
只是要我到bursa的网站看看,
以下是我的对话记录:
问:请问你会中文吗?
答:对不起,我不会
听到这儿,冷汗直留...
问 ...

你的问题很不明确，叫人家如何回答你？

Mr.Business

东和的旧闻。

Tong Herr: A world-class player
11-05-2005

Tong Herr Resources’ (RM3.78) business has grown handsomely over the last three years. So has profitability. Although it doesn’t have a very high profile among local investors, the company is a world-class player in the global stainless steel fasteners market.
We estimate that production output will continue to expand in the double digits this year. Its range of products, including hex nuts, bolts, socket cap screw carriage bolts and threaded bars, has broad applications. They are widely used in the construction, infrastructure, industrial machinery, marine engineering and shipbuilding industries.

Expand geographical distribution network
The company’s export markets are geographically well diversified (All products are manufactured for exports). Two of its biggest markets are Japan and the Euro zone, which together accounts for nearly three-quarters of revenue. It also sells to customers in Asia, Australia, US, Africa and the Middle East.
Tong Herr owes part of its success to the global reach, technical know-how and purchasing power of its Taiwan-based parent company, which also has a branch in China. Together, the group supplies about a third of the world’s demand for products of its kind.
To tap the growing Asean markets, including Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia, Tong Herr is setting up a new manufacturing plant in Thailand. Demand for stainless steel fasteners in Thailand itself is estimated to be around three times that of Malaysia. Furthermore, fasteners exported from the country to the US will not attract the 8.6% import tax currently levied on products made in Malaysia. Thus, the company will be able to price its products more competitively and gain a bigger foothold in the US market.
This plant is targeted for completion end-2005 and initial production is estimated at about a quarter of its local output. As new markets are tapped, production can be ramped up to triple this level.

Diversify product range
Tong Herr is also constantly adding new machineries to expand its product range, with particular focus on specialised and customised items that command higher margins. This is key to sustaining its profitability in the face of rising raw material costs like steel and nickel. Fortunately, passing on higher costs is not too difficult since its products, whilst crucial, generally account for only a small percentage of overall project values.

Low valuation and high yield
The company is remarkably efficient, delivering returns on assets and equity at 27-28% and net margin at 20% last year. Although this year will likely look slow after 2004’s doubling of profits, growth should pick up in 2006-2007 with the additional capacity in Thailand.
Against its positive outlook, the shares are trading at comparatively low valuations – PE multiple of less than 7 times 2005 estimated earnings. Thus, we believe there still is room for capital gains.
Shareholders should also receive pretty good dividends. The company has 12 sen per share in final dividend outstanding (ex-date May 20), bringing total payout for 2004 to 30 sen or gross yield of 7.9%. We expect Tong Herr to maintain its high payout with RM66 million net cash in hand.

Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_c7582fd6-cb73c03a-15cd9c00-1f12a9f7

XXXXX

Tong Herr: After the fall
16-12-2005

Share price for Tong Herr Resources (RM2.48) collapsed rather spectacularly earlier this month, triggered by its weak earnings in the 3Q05. It has since recovered some lost ground but the stock is still trading some 42% lower than at the start of 2005.

Sharp drop in earnings after bumper 2004
As mentioned in our previous article, the steel industry has been going through a soft patch since mid-2005. Tong Herr reported slower sales in the past three quarters, each slightly worse than the previous. Cumulative sales declined by some 6% over the corresponding period last year.

Its net profit contraction was significantly more severe as the company has also to content with higher raw material costs (acquired before the market downturn) relative to selling prices. Earnings for the first nine months of the year fell by some 32% y-y.

In a way, the lower earnings appear worse than it should be because 2004 was a stunning year for the steel sector, by most yardsticks. Prices more than doubled within a very short time frame, driven by China’s voracious demand. (In fact, it was the exact reverse of what happened in the last few months. Then, Tong Herr benefited from fast rising selling prices and lower average raw material costs) Many steel and related companies were making ‘abnormal’ profits that were unsustainable over the longer-term. Tong Herr’s operating margin in 2004 rose to 28%, compared to the average of 20% in the prior ten years.

Adjustments to market expectations
For the current year, we estimate operating margin will fall back to around 21-22% and profits of roughly RM28 million. This represents a 36% decline from last year – but still higher than earnings in any of the preceding ten years. Hence, looking beyond the current period of ‘expectations adjustment’ we believe the company is still a good investment. The stock is trading at roughly 6.5 times estimated 2006 earnings.

Balance sheet remains in good shape
Tong Herr’s balance sheet remains in good shape. As at end-Sept, it has net cash of some RM80 million. Shareholders can expect decent annual dividends. The company paid 10 sen per share interim dividends and is planning on another 8 sen or so in the final quarter. At the current price, yield would gross 7.3%. (In 2004, Tong Herr paid 30 sen apiece dividends on the back of bumper profits)

Signs of gradual recovery
The company indicated signs of a gradual recovery since last month, which should strengthen further into 2006. The market for stainless steel fasteners is less competitive than that for carbon steel fasteners (which are substantially cheaper). The global economy is looking well and Tong Herr exports nearly all its output, to the eurozone, Japan, Australia, Asia, Middle East, etc.

Its manufacturing plant in Thailand is close to completion. The company targets test runs this month and commercial operations next year. Demand for stainless steel fasteners in Thailand is estimated to be around three times the size of the local market. Furthermore, fasteners exported from the country to the US will not attract the 8.6% import tax currently levied on products made in Malaysia. Thus, the company will be able to price its products more competitively and gain a bigger foothold in the US market. - InsiderAsia

Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_2ca8627a-cb73c03a-df4bfc00-b9df4650