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origen

原帖由 leomaster 于 6-1-2008 01:25 AM 发表


那应该是好事吧？

表面上从股东的利益来说，是好事。（你手头上的每一股票所享有的利润提高。。）不过我个人对公司回购股票是有点异见的是，这不是什么实质上的好事，特别是经常都这样做；除非是这间公司已经在业务，成长空间到达饱和点。。因为这些用来回购股票的钱，是不是应该用在更能为股东创造更高的价值的活动？这里有篇好文章可以了解更多http://biz.thestar.com.my/bizwee ... ek/19902309&sec=bizweek（star online 英语）

Mr.Business

关于回购股票的一篇文章 (origen兄推荐)：

Saturday January 5, 2008

Why buybacks fail

Investment Scents
By S. DALI

EVERY now and then, Bursa Malaysia and the business papers highlight the share buyback activities carried out by listed companies. Also, there have been many articles written on the merits (and demerits) of such programmes.  

So, do share buybacks work?

To answer that, we need to be mindful of why there is a need for a stock market in the first place? There are two main reasons for the establishment of a stock market. First and foremost, it allows companies to raise cheap funds to fund their growth strategies. Secondly, it is to allow for individuals and other entities to participate in the growth of these companies. All other reasons are secondary in nature.  

A company raises funds to facilitate corporate strategies with the hope that it will make money, preferably higher than the prevailing interest rate. Successful companies keep accumulating profits to prepare for two eventualities – market down cycles or to take advantage of opportunities when there is a market/industry correction/sell-down.

Companies should only indulge in share buybacks when accumulated funds are in excess for the two reasons stated above. This is because share buybacks will deplete reserves and may not be easily convertible to cash when there is a down cycle or market correction – the time when funds may be needed.  

Companies doing share buybacks must and should consider this aspect before embarking on the exercise. Even then, the company can still decide on other options to utilise the excess cash – give back to shareholders in the form of dividends or bonus – especially in a matured industry.  

Companies raise cash for investing in growth. If they find no good investing opportunities after a prolonged period and cash flow is healthy, the funds ought to be returned to shareholders. Essentially, when companies embark on a share buyback programme, they are saying that it is the best way to utilise their excess cash. To arrive at that decision, they must be convinced that their share is undervalued compared to their company's prospects.

A company's share price may not reflect its true potential. Who knows the company's fundamentals better than the people running them? Then we have to look at why management is doing it: Is it to improve the share price via reducing the free float; and/or improve the earnings per share (which only happens when the shares are subsequently cancelled).  

If a company has to resort to improving its share price by reducing free float, it is rarely successful. By reducing free float, it is a futile exercise as the company will have to accumulate a significant amount to prop up the share price – that seems artificial no matter how you look at it as the only group really keen to own the shares is the company themselves.

Of course, share buybacks can successfully engineer higher share prices by massively reducing free float but they will have to meet regulations for minimum free float in the market place as well. The danger is that share buybacks can be taken advantage as “insider trading” by management as it involves market timing – hence the authorities must be more vigilant when it comes to the timing of share buybacks. If a company buys back the shares and do not cancel them, are they waiting to unload when price is higher? That is tantamount to trading in their own shares or having an investment portfolio. Is that part of the company's normal course of business? Can this activity account for a substantial amount of profit for the company? How should analysts regard this profit – probably not enthusiastically as it is considered as a “one-off.”

It is then easy to appreciate the call for companies to make their intentions known to the public when carrying out share buybacks – is it for future placements to institutions; to be cancelled? and if so, a time frame needs to be stipulated; not to be cancelled?; to be sold back into the market when price is higher?; or to be disbursed as bonus? To me, that is vital information and I believe investors will rate the stock accordingly with the new information.  

Bottom line, if it is not going to be cancelled, share buybacks are not really that big a positive in rating the company. Most times, companies who carry out share buybacks do not see significant improvements in their share price. Investors do not rate a company higher because of such an exercise as they are not buying the stock in the first place for various other reasons. In addition, the free float is not really a major factor. A worthwhile share buyback is one that subsequently involves the cancellation of the shares that have been bought back. Companies that do not do that, need to ask themselves why their share price is not at a level where it should be. Are investors not happy with the management's vision? Is the company not communicating its plans effectively? Has the company not been able to chart a credible track record? Have the financial results for the company been haphazard or inconsistent? Is the company unfocused or too diverse that nobody wants to follow/research the company? What is the management's track record in dealing with minority shareholders? Have transactions or deals been fair to all shareholders or been forced down investors' throats?

Chances are the stock will be rated properly and accordingly if the above concerns are addressed. With emphasis on that, it is likely that most share buybacks may not be entirely successful as it is fighting against the “enemy” when the “enemy” is really internal and not external.


# S Dali is a pseudonym. He is an ex analyst/fund manager and active blogger. (malaysiafinance.blogspot.com) who says he is too young, too old, too sacarstic, too dark, too funny, too charismatic, too poor, too Cantonese, too Malaysian, too frank, ...too bad.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/bizwee ... izweek/19902309&

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 6-1-2008 07:17 PM 编辑 ]

prestigio

pang兄卡帖卡到去不同的主题，真的很严重。。。

loong81

佳礼系统升级后的良好效果好像我还没有感受到叻。。

ThermoFisher

据说COMMERZ在2006派发的花红是上市公司里最高的一个，一共派发1年~2年的花红（平均是18个月），相信2007年也会慷慨的派发令人羡慕的花红，对投资者的我们（小股东）来说,自己所投资的公司派如此高的花红是不是一件令人开心的事呢？

[ 本帖最后由 ThermoFisher 于 6-1-2008 11:44 PM 编辑 ]

goodluck88

鱼兄也有这个?
还以为你只有标叔

无花

18个月是指所有员工??? 还是只是高层???

leomaster

原帖由 无花 于 6-1-2008 10:41 PM 发表
18个月是指所有员工??? 还是只是高层???

应该是伦等级而发吧？
给员工的花红那么高。但给股东的股息却正好相反。

太照顾员工的公司对股东可不是件好事。

prestigio

说不定大部分的花红都是进纳西尔的口袋，在公司他大完鸟，要派多少都可以。。。

tn728202

原帖由 leomaster 于 7-1-2008 12:18 AM 发表


应该是伦等级而发吧？
给员工的花红那么高。但给股东的股息却正好相反。

太照顾员工的公司对股东可不是件好事。

不然員工那里會更努力
這些是有回報的

origen

原帖由 ThermoFisher 于 6-1-2008 09:53 PM 发表
据说COMMERZ在2006派发的花红是上市公司里最高的一个，一共派发1年~2年的花红（平均是18个月），相信2007年也会慷慨的派发令人羡慕的花红，对投资者的我们（小股东）来说,自己所投资的公司派如此高的花红是不是一件令 ...

花红根据公司的利润来付出，可以说是公司赚钱能力的一个指标。
Wallstreet的投资银行这几年来所付出的花红是天文数字，Cimb是我国第一号投资银行，它在这方面的贡献对整个group非常大。。如果说这部门获得花红部份最多应该是合理的。。

想问一个问题，是否老外管理或同样管理方式的花红比较慷慨。。

ss24

个人觉得COMMERZ应该可说是很好的土著集团。

以员工方面来说：
我在这间财团其下一间小公司是一名小小IT职员，可以感受到它的冲力和雄心。然而，因为它是土著银行,不少地方都会保留土著性质的考量和行动，这可能会影响它区域或国际性的发展的弹性。员工福利方面应该不错（０７年底层员工花红普遍上是两个月，高层不清楚，花红是根据表现发的）。

[ 本帖最后由 ss24 于 8-1-2008 01:11 AM 编辑 ]

john1984

有人知道为什么commerze 今天大起吗？ 很久没有看到它升到这么快了。。

霸天虎

原帖由 john1984 于 8-1-2008 11:10 PM 发表
有人知道为什么commerze 今天大起吗？ 很久没有看到它升到这么快了。。

跌回了........不知道要表卖.........

ThermoFisher

个人觉得COMMERZ已经不是以前的COMMERZ了，今天的COMMERZ已经有取代MAYBANK的气势，它不止是国内手屈一指的投资银行，其成长率也是国内银行之冠！

COMMERZ的股价起得快，跌得也很快，成交量频高，相对之下MAYBANK和PBB的股价波动较小，所以如果想投机银行股却不愿冒高风险的朋友，COMMERZ应该是他们首选，有兴趣的朋友可以去研究他过去的走势，来回几次收获应该会很不错，哈哈。

霸兄，起的时候卖，跌的时候买，你的胜算会比较高喔（个人建议）。

ThermoFisher

COMMERZ的马达发动了，一去不回头了.

chonghoo81

commerz 摆脱高位横摆，。。

目标价 RM 18

霸天虎

原帖由 chonghoo81 于 12-1-2008 10:53 AM 发表
commerz 摆脱高位横摆，。。

目标价 RM 18

要多久时间才到RM18

ThermoFisher

短期目标是13元，先破了13元才来说18元比较实际，只怕你等不到18元就套利了

无花

个人认为Commerz的主力还是在投资银行.
收购南方的确是为零售银行业务加分不少.特别是Express Cash阿窿式贷款做得寸十分积极.
纳西尔还可以用,但政治背影还是最大的助力