【j8 个人专区】目录参照1楼-期权交易日志【Options Trading Diary】

jway888

原帖由 心如直水 于 18-4-2008 12:31 AM 发表
楼主对FKLI 如何有效操作有何见解? 可有接触?

抱歉，目前没有。

心如直水

对美国今天和明天走势有何看法?
明天CITIGROUP业绩不知对市大好大坏

jway888

由于目前Streamyx还是不稳定，所以先看看一些重要的新闻。发现到一则有趣的新闻想说和各位分享。
转贴自：http://news.wenxuecity.com/messages/200804/news-gb2312-572552.html

原文：
美国科学家预测未来30年99%加州将发生大地震 新华社
新华社洛杉矶４月１６日电科学家日前表示，美国加利福尼亚州在未来３０年内发生能造成大面积破坏的强地震的可能性为９９％。
据此间媒体报道，美国地质勘探局表示，科学家设计了一种新模型，以研究大地震的发生几率。他们发现，加州在２０３８年前不发生６．７级地震的几率只有１％。同一期间，加州发生７．５级以上大规模地震的几率预计为４６％，其中加州南部人口稠密地区遭遇地震的可能性最大。
这一预测是科学家根据新模型做出的。新模型综合了地震学、地震地质情况和地球表面精确测量数据等各种信息，以预报发生大地震的可能性。
加州地震几率工作组负责人内德·菲尔德说：“几乎可以肯定的是，在未来３０年内，加州的某个地方将发生可能具有破坏性的地震。其中，加州最大的两个城市——洛杉矶和旧金山发生６．７级地震的几率超过６３％。”
地质学家认为，加州最可能发生地震的地区位于洛杉矶以东里弗赛德县的圣安德烈亚斯断层南段。科学家将其形容为“怀胎十月”的地区。因为圣安德烈亚斯断层每隔１５０年左右就爆发一次大地震，不过最近３００年来却一直没有动静。

个人感想：
如果是接触投资期权之前，看过之后可能觉得幸好我不是在加州生活。接触及了解投资方面的学问后，马上联想到以下几个重点：
1）加州是属于美国哪个部分？
2）加州是目前美国的重力经济支柱吗？
3）目前在加州内主要的工业是什么？
4）这会对加州的产业造成一定的影响吗？
5）美国有任何蓝筹股总公司是设在加州的吗？如有，那万一有天真的发生地震的话，营运方面会有重大影响吗？

接着就马上联想到昨天看到的一则图片统计学，讲述的是在美国有哪个州是拥有全美最高出口收入的。


图片提到加州主要出口产品包括电脑，电子，机械，运输工具及化学物。（排列由最多到最少）
那么其重点就是：
万一地震发生在加州，这对股市会有什么影响？
不难想象，综合以上各点地震后的接下来几天，相关产品公司的股票将会有非常大的波动。地震当天会猛挫，然后又因为该公司拥有庞大的海外市场而在接下来的几天之内回升。美国政府也会对该州伸出庞大的援助，股市也会渐渐地复苏。而投资者呢？则不难股市下也赚，上也赚。虽然是30年之内会发生的事件，可是先未雨绸缪又有何不可呢？毕竟每天，后天，下星期，下个月也同属“30年之内”。没有养“识”千日，又何有机会用在一时。况且这一“用”说不定也会为你的财务计划带来守得云开见明月之效。
（纯属个人意见，欢迎评论）

后注：为了查明以上报导，决定到其中知名的美国新闻播报公司确认，发现该文所言不假。英文版本原文如下，出处为：http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN14382177
Major quake almost inevitable for California-study
By Dan Whitcomb
LOS ANGELES, April 14 (Reuters) - California will almost inevitably be struck by a major earthquake, and possibly a catastrophic quake, sometime in the next 30 years, scientists said on Monday in the most comprehensive geologic forecast for the state. California faces a more than 99 percent chance of being hit by a magnitude 6.7 temblor -- the size of the 1994 Northridge quake -- in the next 30 years, according to a study using new data and analyzing earthquake probabilities across the state. The analysis found a nearly 50 percent chance that California would be rocked by a magnitude 7.5 quake, which is capable of inflicting catastrophic damage if it is centered under a big city like Los Angeles or San Francisco.
"We can expect that we're going to get hammered by a big earthquake and we'd better be prepared," said Tom Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center at the University of Southern California. "Magnitude 7.5, that's a really big earthquake," Jordan said. "If that were to hit on the San Andreas Fault it could be very destructive. You're talking about an earthquake that might span 200 miles (322 km) of fault length and a displacement of 12 feet (3.6 metres) or more.
"If that were to take place in say, the Los Angeles region, then you would have a big problem," he said. Jordan said the chance of a 7.5 magnitude quake hitting Southern California was 37 percent, compared to 15 percent in Northern California, largely because the 1906 San Francisco earthquake relieved stress from the San Andreas Fault there.
The 1906 San Francisco quake was thought to have been a magnitude of around 7.8 or higher. The last temblor of that size in Southern California was in 1857, and the southernmost section of the San Andreas Fault has not seen such an event since 1680. "Those faults have been accumulating stress all this time and that makes large earthquakes highly probable," Jordan said.

The Jan. 17, 1994, Northridge quake in Los Angeles killed 72 people, injured more than 10,000 and caused billions of dollars in damage.
The study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Southern California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey and is significant because it presents the probabilities statewide for the first time. "This is the most comprehensive earthquake forecast ever for the state of California," Jordan said, adding that it was requested by the California Earthquake Authority and would be used by the agency as a basis for setting insurance rates. (Editing by Bob Tourtellotte)

[ 本帖最后由 jway888 于 18-4-2008 02:25 AM 编辑 ]

jway888

原帖由 心如直水 于 18-4-2008 01:06 AM 发表
对美国今天和明天走势有何看法?
明天CITIGROUP业绩不知对市大好大坏

看了今天的MER (Merill Lynch &Co.,Inc.) 业绩表现后，初期的观察是：
1）如果CITIGROUP (简称C)的Writedown比MER低但是却Miss Earning Consensus的话，那么该股在开市前会下跌，然后开市后有很大的机会重蹈MER的趋势意即回升，但不多。
2）如果C的Writedown比MER高，而且又是Miss Earning Consensus,又Cut Dividend, 而且大蓝筹股公司Google也一起Miss Earning Consensus,那么基本上，XLF（Finance综合指数），XLK（Technology综合指数），QQQQ（Nasdaq迷你综合指数）就会带动整个市场，一起玩Bungee Jump （俗称：笨猪跳，注：由于是笨猪跳，所以跌到一定的Support之后一定会反弹，然后再跌，然后再上。但是由于明天是期权的4月份逾期日，所以基本上不会跌超过150点。）.
3）如果C的Writedown比MER低，Beat Earning Consensus, Google 也是Beat，早上开市前的8:30经济统计也比专家预算的好的话，那么全天股市会上涨，然后下个礼拜也一路向北。（万一此情况出现的话，那么亚洲股市也会顺便搭顺风车，毕竟现在3大指数都在转磊点）

（纯属个人见解）

心如直水

深入见解...多谢了.....

jway888

Google于美国下午闭市时间16:01宣布2008年Q1业绩，具体如下：
Google beats by $0.32, beats on revs ($449.54 -5.49)
闭市时股价为$449.54, 全天下跌$5.49美元。闭市而宣布业绩后一度突破$505.14 (第一个Resistance). [在我打着这篇报告的时候一度突破$508，上升了$50以上].


接下来只等
2）Citigroup 的业绩报告。美国时间星期五早上8点半。 及
3）美国经济统计报告。

如果2）及3）都有不俗的成绩，那期待已久的短期牛市就正式重现了。

后注：
在短短40分钟之内Google突破了$530大关，逼近最近的第4个Resistance! (我的老天，还没看过这么牛的冲劲).
各位观众，请留意接下来我所要强调的期权魅力所在：
如果，你在今天（星期四美国时间3点59分之前）买入了GOOG APR 530 Call  价格是$0.20, 那么明天开市的时候，你每个Contract能帮你赚到$15.00.
换句话说，你花$2000美元买100个Contract的话(100x$0.20x100=$2000),你在一天之内所赚取的将是 － ($15.00-$0.20)x100x100 = $148,000美元。
花$2000美元，赚$148,000美元，爽吗?(一天之内)或差不多是以下图片的情况：


[ 本帖最后由 jway888 于 18-4-2008 07:39 AM 编辑 ]

jway888

查看了以下的图之后，异常期待中。所谓的蓄势待发就是这么一回事。
Dow Jones:


Nasdaq:


S&P500:


如果星期五成功飙上去，那效果自当非同小可。但由于也是属于Equity逾期日，一定数量的Profit Taking也是无可避免。希望Citigroup能捎来一些好消息，辅助各大指数，让DJ在今天成功突破120点！ 老样子，Finger Cross.

leong9000

哇，你的功力非同小可
相信除了课程外你自己也是非常用功
６千马币不会太贵，不过只是担心上课后没有你这般努力没有同样效果。

二，课程外你本身从那一些书获益最多？

jway888

原帖由 leong9000 于 18-4-2008 08:49 AM 发表
哇，你的功力非同小可,相信除了课程外你自己也是非常用功,６千马币不会太贵，不过只是担心上课后没有你这般努力没有同样效果。
二，课程外你本身从那一些书获益最多？

万事起头难，只待有“心”人。况且我想信你本身底子也打得很好了。那“难”中也不过是版面操作方面的新接触问题而已。
本身阅读的杂志有：
1) Businessweek
2) Newsweek
3) The Times

书籍可在1楼找到。
网页则是：
1) www.cnbc.com
2) www.reuters.com
3) www.optionmonster.com
4) www.bloomberg.com
5) http://finance.google.com
6) http://finance.yahoo.com

大致上是这样。

leong9000

见笑了，我那乱七八糟的技术分析，用在牛市尚可

要在上下皆可赚钱的盘面操作，不免叫人笑话

我会努力寻找 J 兄你介绍的书籍，潜心学习，同时努力存钱，待准备好了就出发拜师
盼该课程常有常在

J 兄你若得空，可到此楼坐坐http://chinese3.cari.com.my/myfo ... ;page=9#pid41160129
咱俩同是工程师，同样怀着个千万未来呢

jway888

来看看美国时间4月17日晚上的新闻：
原文出处：www.cnbc.com网站。


重点为：
1) 有“中国Google”之称的百度（上市Ticker为BIDU）将在未来进军网络游戏市场。
2) 百度将与美国Nasdaq上市网络游戏公司合作以开发几项不同的网络游戏。
3) 百度此前也在3月份左右正式推出其独特的Instant Messaging service.

综合以上各点，不难猜出近期内BIDU和GOOG这两个大股将肩并肩一起向北方冲刺。4月28日之后（百度将在该日推出其近3个月份的业绩成绩）很大可能性会在6月之前再次冲破$450大关。
（注：BIDU现股价为$332）。至于GOOG个人认为在7月份之前要再次突破2008年1月份的$685大关并不难，只要Comscore不再随便乱发出不实的Paid Click统计报告。

綠葉島

郑文元博士于2003年创办的《自由生活》活动计划，在其英明领导与积极推动下，迄今已惠及超过2万名横跨本区域各地的学员。

2万学生 X $6000 =  $120000000   

不知道賺錢的學員佔了多少巴仙率 ??? (只是好奇,有机會也想学一学的說)

謝謝樓主的分享 ......

gutt

小弟可否问一个笨问题：最少多少美金才可以“玩” OPTIONS?
这个月尾会去听听有关OPTIONS的讲座会，学习以便以后可以投资！

jay87

<闭市时股价为$449.54, 全天下跌$5.49美元。闭市而宣布业绩后一度突破$505.14>

闭市后,还有股价的啊?? 不太明白!!

我命由我不由天

在这里跟大家说一下 有兴趣玩OPTION的可以先REGISTER 虚拟交易的户口来练习试试 不要一下子就跳进去 也许它不适合你的话会亏很惨 建议在真正交易前多练习 股票跌了可以收 ， OPTION到期了就是没了

8years

想问一个问题，如果我买ｃａｌｌ　ｏｐｔｉｏｎ　ｕｓｄ２０００，但是ｇｏｏｇｌｅ下跌２０％。

那么我是损失ｕｓｄ２０００还是还要背负其他损失的债务？？

我命由我不由天

原帖由 8years 于 18-4-2008 01:18 PM 发表
想问一个问题，如果我买ｃａｌｌ　ｏｐｔｉｏｎ　ｕｓｄ２０００，但是ｇｏｏｇｌｅ下跌２０％。

那么我是损失ｕｓｄ２０００还是还要背负其他损失的债务？？

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
我在楼主介绍的网站看到这个
好像可以帮忙解答你的问题
                                                            
For investors with a highlevel of risk tolerance, options provide ample opportunity to userelatively moderate sums of money to leverage sizable positions. For afraction of what it would cost to buy large blocks of shares inhigh-flying volatile companies, investors can buy calls giving them theright, but not the obligation, to buy shares at a specific price(strike). Although options provide potential opportunities, unlikestock, options do not pay cash dividends or convey voting rights. Also,options may expire worthless and an options buyer risks the entireamount paid plus any commissions paid.

If a stocktrades at $40, it would take $20,000 to buy 500 shares. Using options,the same investor might buy ten 40 call contracts at $7. Now, for just$7,000 (10 contracts x $7 x 100 shares per contract), the investor ownsthe rights to buy 1,000 shares of stock at $40, any time before thecall options expire. If the stock price is $60 at expiration, theoptions will be worth $20 each ($60 - $40) or $20,000 (10 contracts x$20 x 100). The investor will have a profit of $13,000 on a $7,000investment.

In contrast, the investor who paid $40 for500 shares spent $20,000 to make $10,000 ($60 - $40 x 500 shares).That's the power of leverage. However, the risks are equally high. Ifthe stock doesn't move, the investor who paid $7,000 for the $40 callswill lose the entire investment. Likewise, the investors who bought thestock will have lost nothing because they still own the stock.

Value at Expiration
Stock Price	Stock Profit (Loss)	Option Profit (Loss)
20	($10,000)	($7,000)
30	($5,000)	($7,000)
40	$0	($7,000)
50	$5,000	$3,000
60	$10,000	$13,000
70	$15,000	$23,000

  * The profit/loss above does not factor in commissions, interest, or tax considerations.

看得出来OPTION跟股票的分别是在收益（PROFIT）还有风险（RISK）， 股票的风险低于OPTION 可是 OPTION可以小刀锯大树， 唯不同的是一不小心你那把刀可能会弄断

可是OPTION也有好用的地方， 如下

Help With Portfolio Protection

                                                                One of the mostconservative strategies for using options is to help ensure yourportfolio against sudden downward pressure on stock prices. To helpprotect portfolio value, investors often buy puts as a hedge. For whatamounts to be a fairly minimal investment, you can secure the right tosell your stock at a particular price (a "put") regardless of what themarket is doing. By purchasing a protective put, an investor increasestheir break-even point of the stock by the cost of the put and if thestock price rises instead of falls, this strategy may limit the upsidepotential by the cost of the put. Before using this strategy, it isimportant to consider the tax implications because no matter whatdirection the stock moves, the purchase of a protective put terminatesa stock's holding period for tax purposes.

                                                                The way thisworks is fairly straightforward. Let's imagine you decided to buy 1000shares of XYZ Corporation for $47. To protect your $47,000 investment,you might consider buying puts.
                                                                Since each put controls100 shares, you would need 10 contracts to protect 1,000 shares. Bychoosing a strike price of $45 and an expiration date several monthsaway, you would lock in the right to sell your shares with a maximumloss of $2,000 ($47 purchase price - $45 strike price x 1,000 shares)plus the cost of the puts. Of course, the best scenario would be forthe stock to increase in value so the puts would expire worthless. Ineither case, knowing that you'll be able to sell your shares at$45-even if the stock drops to $30-might just help you sleep easier.
                                                               
Generate Additional Income on Your Portfolio

                                                                Another common, relatively conservative strategy is covered-call writing.Many investors use this strategy to help generate additional incomefrom stocks they have in their portfolio. A covered call strategy canprovide a stock-owning investor limited downside protection in returnfor limited upside participation as any participation in a stock priceincrease is capped at the strike price. Also, like stock ownership, thedownside loss potential can be substantial as the underlying sharescould possibly decline to zero.

                                                                Before using thisstrategy, it is important to consider the tax implications because youmay have to pay capital gains on the sale of the stock. If this isn't abig issue for you, then it's best to pick stocks in your portfolio thattend to be somewhat volatile. The options on more volatile stocks aremore expensive so they generate more potential income when you sell thecovered calls. If you would rather be more conservative, choose a lessvolatile stock because it is less likely you will be forced to sell it.The trade-off is that you won't earn as much income because the optionson less volatile stocks are less expensive. In either case, here's howthe strategy works:

                                                                Let's imagine that one of your keyholdings is a company that spent the past year between $59 and $68 pershare. You currently have 1,000 shares and the stock is trading at $67.If you sold 10 calls or less against the stock in your account, theywould be considered "covered" because you wouldn't have to buy shareson the open market in the event of an assignment. For this reason, theposition is far less risky than uncovered (naked) calls that, bydefinition, are written without stock as collateral.

                                                                Ifthe $70 calls are trading at $3, you could sell 5 contracts and earn$1,500 ($3 x 5 contracts x 100 shares). Now, all you have to do is hopethe stock remains below $70. If it does, you keep the $1,500 and all ofyour stock. If the stock jumps to $72, you have two choices. First, tokeep the stock, you could buy the calls back. While this may result ina loss, for tax reasons it could be preferable to incurring capitalgains. Your other option would be to wait for the assignment and sell500 shares to the option holder at $70 per share. In this case, youstill keep the $1,500 premium you collected from selling the calls. Inaddition, you capture the profit associated with the stock's move from$67 to $70.

[ 本帖最后由 我命由我不由天 于 18-4-2008 01:31 PM 编辑 ]

8years

好像不太清楚。。。
那么我是损失ｕｓｄ２０００还是还要背负其他损失的债务？？

重要的是如果输会输到破产，还是输我已经出资的ｕｓｄ２０００呢？？是不是好像ｗａｒｒａｎｔ那样，输了只是输ｕｓｄ２０００呢？还是如果亏损，我必需要填债？

8years

看来好像只是输本钱吧了，不用输其他的钱，好像很不错

我命由我不由天

Value at Expiration
Stock Price        Stock Profit (Loss)        Option Profit (Loss)
20        ($10,000)        ($7,000)
30        ($5,000)        ($7,000)
40        $0        ($7,000)
50        $5,000        $3,000
60        $10,000        $13,000
70        $15,000        $23,000

我不是很清楚，可能需要楼主来回答了，我认为好像是要看你玩怎样的OPTION，
LONG or SHORT， 还是有没有limit

如果你玩NAKED CALL OPTION， 就是说你实际上没有HOLD股票的
                                                                                       
Selling naked calls is one of the riskiest strategies of all. The potential loss is unlimited.


Unlikecovered calls, where the option seller owns the underlying stock, thewriter of naked calls remains completely exposed to upside risk.Nevertheless, if you are comfortable using this strategy, it is mosteffective using near term options because they decay more rapidly. Andthat's what you want. The faster these options become worthless, thebetter.
                                                                                       
Example                                                                                        Let's look at International Business Machines (IBM);trading at $83.10. By selling the 90 call for $1.35, you would receivethe $135 option premium, your maximum profit. At expiration, if thestock is at or below 90, you keep the full $135. However, your profitdisappears as the stock climbs toward $93. Above $93, your loss growswithout limit.



Given the mounting losses apparent in the table below, it should be clear that naked call writing is an extremely risky strategy. Even the most bearish investor would do well to convert this position to a bear spread by buying an out-of-the money call. This would limit upside losses.

[ 本帖最后由 我命由我不由天 于 18-4-2008 01:41 PM 编辑 ]