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 楼主| 发表于 31-5-2017 10:29 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: BULLS ERASE LOSSES, EUROZONE INFLATION EYED FOR NEXT MOVE



EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro moved higher yesterday on speculation that the European Central Bank may remove easing at their June meeting. Now the pair is trading again above the 50 EMA and above support.



Technical Outlook

Although the pair briefly dipped below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bulls quickly pushed price higher after a bounce at 1.1120 support. This makes 1.1240 the first target and a break would mean uptrend resumption and probably a move into 1.1340 resistance. If the pair moves below the 50 period EMA again, we will probably see a break of 1.1120 and a move into 1.1075.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone Consumer Price Index will be released today at 9:00 am GMT, offering insights into the state of European inflation. Today’s version is the Flash Estimate and tends to have a bigger impact than the Final, which is released about two weeks later, so we can expect to see increased volatility, with bullish bias if the actual number exceeds the forecast of 1.5% (previous 1.9%).


GBP/USD

The Pound rebounded and erased some of the losses suffered last week, making the short term bias bullish and bringing the pair above 1.2850, a level that acted as both support and resistance in the past.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.2850 initially pushed price lower but the sellers quickly ran out of steam and the pair continued higher, through the mentioned resistance, now turned support. The immediate target seems to be the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but if the line is not broken, we expect to see another push below 1.2850. The 50 EMA is in close vicinity of 1.2900 resistance and together the 2 elements create a confluence zone which will be tough to break.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases for today, so the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by the technical side.
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 楼主| 发表于 1-6-2017 08:48 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR WEAK ACROSS THE BOARD AHEAD OF ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE



EUR/USD


Forex News: European inflation data came slightly below expectations yesterday but despite this fact, the pair climbed above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and tested 1.1240 resistance, giving us a bullish session.



Technical Outlook

The pair climbed above the 50 period EMA and above 1.1170, which has now turned into support once more. If the key resistance at 1.1240 can be surpassed with ease, we expect to see a move into the next resistance, located 100 pips higher, at 1.1340. Another failed attempt to break 1.1240 would show increased pressure and would make our bias bearish, aiming for 1.1170, followed by 1.1120.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at the U.S. employment situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The report shows changes in the total number of employed people, excluding Government and the farming sector. The indicator is less important than the Non-Farm Payrolls, released Friday but nonetheless, higher numbers are indicative of a thriving economy and usually strengthen the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is 181K, a small increase from the previous 177K.


GBP/USD

After a perfect bounce at 1.2770 the pair rallied and the bulls managed to break 1.2850. The US Dollar has weakened against most of its counterparts and this will likely generate additional upside movement.



Technical Outlook

The pair is facing an important hurdle represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, followed by the horizontal resistance at 1.2900. If these two elements can be broken, we expect to see a climb into 1.2990 but this target will probably be reached after a retracement. If the pair bounces lower at the 50 EMA or at 1.2900, it will probably move into 1.2770 area once again.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Manufacturing PMI, a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers about the state of the manufacturing sector. Numbers above the forecast usually strengthen the currency but the impact is limited if the actual number comes close to expectations. The indicator is released at 8:30 am GMT and the anticipated number is 56.5.
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 楼主| 发表于 2-6-2017 11:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: UNCERTAINTY AHEAD OF U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS. PREPARE FOR A VOLATILITY BOOST



EUR/USD


Forex News: The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change posted a much better number than expected (actual 253K, forecast 181K) and this strengthened the US Dollar, bringing the pair lower after another encounter with 1.1240 zone of resistance.



Technical Outlook


Most of the US Dollar gains triggered by the positive employment data were erased soon after but overall the session was bearish. The failed break of 1.1240 – 1.1250 zone is a sign that the uptrend may be coming to an end and makes the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the first target, followed by 1.1170. A break of 1.1240 would invalidate this scenario but price action today will be influenced by the U.S. employment data and the technical side will be secondary at release.

Fundamental Outlook


Today at 12:30 pm GMT the most important U.S. jobs indicator will be released: the Non-Farm Payrolls (aka Non-Farm Employment Change). The report shows changes in the total number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming sector and usually has a very strong impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it. Today’s forecast is a change of 186K, a drop from the previous 211K.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair descended into 1.2850 support on the back of US Dollar strength but the bears failed to break the level and instead price bounced higher, testing resistance again.



Technical Outlook

During the last couple of days the pair bounced between support and resistance, offering mixed signals. As long as the pair remains above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and breaks 1.2900, our bias is bullish but the technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental as both currencies in the pair will be influenced by economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook


The Construction PMI is today’s highlight for the Pound, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 52.7. This is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers, which tries to gauge their opinions regarding business conditions and the overall health of the Construction sector. Usually a value above expectations strengthens the Pound but the effect is limited if the actual number matches the forecast. The pair will also be affected by the release of the U.S. jobs data.
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 楼主| 发表于 5-6-2017 08:53 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: POUND AND US DOLLAR AFFECTED BY SERVICES DATA, EUROPEAN BANKS CLOSED DUE TO WHIT MONDAY



EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday was all about the story of the US Dollar and the Non-farm Payrolls that posted a change of 138K, much lower than the anticipated 181K. The previous value was also revised lower, from 211K to 174K and all this weakened the greenback severely, taking the pair above resistance.


Technical Outlook

Before the NFP release the pair had a slow session but once the numbers came out, the US Dollar weakened and as a result the resistance at 1.1240 was broken. We may see a re-test of the level, which may turn into support but for now the first target is located at 1.1340. It is likely that the trip there will take more than one day but a quick return below 1.1240 followed by a break of the 50 period EMA would invalidate such a scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Dollar will be affected by the release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey that acts as a leading indicator of economic health and optimism. The forecast is 57.3 and usually, higher numbers strengthen the currency.

Today German and French banks will be closed due to Whit Monday and this may affect volatility, possibly creating choppy price movement.


GBP/USD

For the entire last week price was trapped inside a horizontal channel and Friday was no exception. The US Dollar weakness generated by the NFP release took the pair back into the upper part of the channel but a breakout didn’t materialize.



Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.2850 was generated by the disappointing NFP numbers and the move is likely to extend past the resistance at 1.2900. The short term bias is bullish but last week ended with price very close to the 50 period EMA which is flat, thus confirming that the pair is in a ranging state. Our bias is neutral but a break of 1.2900 could generate an extended move in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the services sector about business conditions and overall economic health of the said sector. The forecast is 55.1 and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.
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 楼主| 发表于 6-6-2017 08:47 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: BRITISH ELECTION SCENE HEATS UP – CONSERVATIVES BACK IN THE LEAD



EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action was slow yesterday and the fact that some European banks were closed due to Whit Monday contributed to the lack of movement. The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI came very close to analysts’ expectations, so the impact was low.


Technical Outlook

The pair retraced into 1.1240 which was the previous resistance, now turned support and here the next move will be probably decided. A bounce would confirm 1.1240 as strong support and would make 1.1340 the next target, while a break would take the pair into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if this dynamic support is broken, we will probably see a stronger move down, with 1.1170 as target. The pair is still in an uptrend but bearish pressure has increased.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases, with the only notable one being the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, an indicator that tracks the number of available jobs during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Today’s forecast is 5.65 Million and usually a higher number strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is often limited; the time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The Pound dropped after the Services PMI disappointed (forecast 55.1, actual 53.8) but then found new buyers after a poll showed that May’s Conservative Party is back in the lead. This took the pair above the resistance at 1.2900 and created a bullish session.



Technical Outlook

The break of the horizontal channel that confined the pair for almost a week will probably trigger a stronger move upwards, making 1.2990 – 1.3000 the next likely destination. However, it must be noted that price action is still choppy and heavily influenced by Election polls or even by speculation about their outcome and this means the pair can move strongly to either side, without warning. All this makes our bias mostly neutral for the days to come and we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by major economic indicators, so the technical aspect will prevail, assuming there are no surprises coming from the Election scene.
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 楼主| 发表于 7-6-2017 10:40 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: PRICE IN TIGHT RANGES AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO ECB DECISION AND BRITISH ELECTIONS



EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair traded above 1.1240 support but movement remained very slow and price was confined in a tight range. The U.S. JOLTS Job Openings posted a better than expected value but this didn’t spur volatility.



Technical Outlook

The pair is now moving inside a tight range, defined by 1.1240 support and 1.1280 – 1.1285 resistance but volatility is likely to remain relatively low until Thursday’s ECB rate announcement and press conference. A break of either support or resistance will probably trigger an extended move in that direction but as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish, aiming for 1.1340 resistance, a level that will probably not be reached today.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have anything major on today’s economic calendar so the pair’s direction will be mostly decided by the technical side.


GBP/USD

After reaching a session high at 1.2950, the pair tumbled below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but erased some of the losses soon after. Overall the session was choppy, with quick reversals on the lower time frames.



Technical Outlook

The four hour candle that pierced the 50 period EMA is showing a long wick in its lower part, thus suggesting rejection and possibly a move higher. If price breaches 1.2900 again, it will probably move into yesterday’s high at 1.2950 and if it remains below the 50 EMA, we will probably see an encounter with 1.2850. The pair remains high-risk and should be treated with caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today but keep an eye out for any news regarding the British Parliamentary Elections.
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 楼主| 发表于 8-6-2017 09:01 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: GET READY FOR ACTION. BRITISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ARE FINALLY HERE




EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had an interesting session yesterday, dropping sharply below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and immediately climbing above it. The initial move down can be attributed to rumours that the ECB will cut their inflation expectations.



Technical Outlook

Price continues to lack a clear direction and the pair is still stuck in a choppy range-mode, with sharp reversals. However, the quick move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average shows some bullish pressure and makes us anticipate a break of 1.1280 resistance, en route to 1.1340 – 1.1350. Another dip below the 50 EMA would probably take price into 1.1170 but keep in mind that today the technical aspect will be secondary, mostly due to the ECB Meeting.

Fundamental Outlook


At 11:45 am GMT the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision and although no change is anticipated (currently 0.00%), the Euro is likely to show increased volatility. Later at 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference, during which he will discuss the rate decision and will answer questions coming from journalists. Usually the Q&A section of the press conference creates the strongest movement and caution is recommended until it concludes.


GBP/USD

There was increased buying pressure yesterday and the pair pushed higher after a bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. It looks like the Pound is breaking out of the choppiness seen lately but today the British Parliamentary Elections take place and this will heavily affect its behavior.



Technical Outlook

Price is trading above the 50 period EMA after a strong bounce and the short term outlook is bullish, aiming for 1.2990 but as mentioned before, today’s price action will be heavily affected by polls and rumors regarding the Parliamentary Elections, so a technical prediction cannot be made accurately. We recommend caution throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is all about the British Parliamentary Elections! Although the official results will be know late at night, the Pound will be affected by exit polls and even speculation throughout the day. Caution is highly recommended.
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 楼主| 发表于 9-6-2017 10:03 AM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: PRICE DIRECTION STILL UNCERTAIN AFTER BRITISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS



EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB maintained the rate at 0.00% but reduced their inflation expectations for 2017 and the following years, so the Euro was overall under pressure, moving slightly below the 1.1200 handle.



Technical Outlook


Price action remained very choppy throughout yesterday’s trading session and a quick dip below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average was soon reversed. Despite this choppiness, our bias is slightly bearish as long as the pair is trading below 1.1280 resistance; the first potential target for this bearish scenario is 1.1170 followed by 1.1120, while to the upside, a break of the mentioned resistance would open the door for a move into 1.1340.

Fundamental Outlook

The trading week ends without major economic releases, so price action today will be mostly decided by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

At the time of writing the official result of the British Parliamentary Elections is not known and overall yesterday’s session was choppy, with back and forth movement.



Technical Outlook

The pair descended into 1.2900 support where it encountered the 50 EMA as well, and as a result it immediately jumped higher, closer to the day’s high. The Pound remains under heavy influence from the Parliamentary Elections and because the official results are not in at the time of writing, we cannot make a proper assessment of price action. For now we recommend caution, but strictly from a technical standpoint, the pair shows rejection at support, so the bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production is today’s highlight, scheduled for release at 8:30 am GMT. This indicator shows changes in the total value of goods generated by the Manufacturing sector and usually has a medium-to-high impact on the Pound. A higher change than the anticipated 0.8% (previous -0.6%) shows increased economic activity and usually strengthens the Pound.
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 楼主| 发表于 12-6-2017 11:52 AM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: POUND POSTS MAJOR LOSSES. CHOPPY MOVEMENT OVERALL



EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the pair continued the bearish move started a day before and reached the support at 1.1170. The lack of economic indicators generated a slow trading session, without substantial developments.



Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is showing rejection at 1.1170 support, with the Stochastic in oversold territory and the Relative Strength Index close to oversold. This suggests that today we are likely to see a climb into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average where the next move will be decided: a break will make 1.1240 the target for the day and a bounce will bring price back down into 1.1170 support. As long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the focus will be entirely on the technical aspect because the economic calendar lacks major releases for both currencies.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped sharply on news of a hung British Parliament (Conservatives won but did not secure majority), reaching a low of 1.2635 but after the initial move, price retraced and showed choppy action.



Technical Outlook

The move generated by the result of the Elections will probably extend lower in the near future but currently it seems that market participants are reluctant to commit to either side. If the pair climbs, it will encounter resistance at 1.2770, while to the downside 1.2635 is the first hurdle. We may see a slow and choppy session today, until market participants decide the next move, but overall our bias is bearish. Keep in mind that the pair remains high-risk.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the other two currencies, the Pound has a light economic calendar ahead, so the technical side will prevail and will be the main price driver.
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 楼主| 发表于 13-6-2017 10:39 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: BRITISH CONSUMER PRICE INDEX EYED FOR NEXT POUND MOVE



EUR/USD


Forex News: The economic scene was calm yesterday, without any important releases and this generated slow, choppy movement in the first part of the day. However, in the second part of the trading session the bears stepped in and now rejection is seen at the 50 period EMA.



Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average proved to be a strong barrier yesterday and stopped a climb seen early during yesterday’s session. For today we expect to see at least an encounter with 1.1170 support, if not a break, but if price moves above the 50 period EMA, we will probably see another break of 1.1240 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, showing the opinions of about 275 professional German investors and analysts about a 6-month economic outlook. The survey has lost some of its impact lately, but it still remains a noteworthy indicator that can strengthen the Euro if it posts higher numbers than the forecast 21.6.

On the US Dollar side we have the Producer Price Index, released at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 0.0% from the previous 0.5%. The index tracks changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and has inflationary implications because a higher producer price will eventually translate into a higher consumer price.


GBP/USD

After a perfect bounce at resistance, the pair resumed downward movement and dropped for more than 100 pips. This shows that the Pound is still affected by the result of the British Parliamentary Elections and calls for further caution.


Technical Outlook


The perfect bounce at 1.2770 resistance made 1.2635 the first target. Once and if price gets here, we will probably see a bounce higher or a period of stagnation, during which the market will decide the next move. If 1.2635 is broken, the next support is located around 1.2570 – 1.2550 but keep in mind that today the Pound will be affected by inflation data and this is likely to be the deciding factor for the next move.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event for the Pound today is the release of the British Consumer Price Index, which is the most important gauge of inflation. Usually this indicator has a strong impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it; today’s forecast is a change of 2.7%, same as previous.

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 楼主| 发表于 14-6-2017 08:05 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE US DOLLAR. MASSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED



EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a slow session yesterday, with price bouncing in a relatively tight range. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was touched again but the bulls lacked the necessary strength to break it.



Technical Outlook

Some rejection is seen at the 50 EMA but overall, yesterday’s session lacked any conviction and price did not move with a clear bias. The market is likely to remain in a tight range, with low volatility and choppy movement until the U.S. events unfold and afterwards, direction will be determined by their outcome. If price moves into 1.1240 resistance or 1.1170 support before the key events scheduled for today, we expect to see bounces rather than breakouts.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a big day ahead for the US Dollar: at 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Price Index is released and expected to post a change of 0.2%, same as previous. This is a key gauge of inflation and usually has a strong impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it. At the same time, the U.S. Retail Sales numbers come out, showing changes in the total value of sales made at retail level. This is another important indicator that can strengthen the greenback if it posts higher numbers. The forecast for today is a change of 0.1% compared to the previous 0.4%.

At 6:00 pm GMT the Fed will announce the interest rate (current <1.00%, forecast <1.25%) along with a FOMC Statement that offers details about the reasons that determined the rate decision. Half an hour later, at 6:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will hold a press conference during which she will answer journalists’ questions. All these events have the potential to create very high volatility, so caution is recommended throughout the day.


GBP/USD

The Pound benefited from a better than expected CPI (forecast 2.7%, actual 2.9%) and rallied before reaching the support at 1.2635. Overall the session was bullish but the pair is still under pressure.



Technical Outlook

The positive vibe received by the Pound yesterday, may extend into the resistance located at 1.2770 but we don’t expect to see further upside because if the level is broken, the pair will encounter the 50 period EMA, which will offer another form of resistance. To the downside, 1.2635 remains a strong support but today both currencies in the pair will be affected by important releases, so the technical aspect is secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The Average Earnings Index is today’s highlight for the Pound. The indicator is scheduled for release at 8:30 am GMT and shows changes in the price that businesses and Government pay for labor. Usually a higher pay means that people will spend more in the near future and this strengthens the Pound; today’s forecast is a change of 2.4%, same as previous.
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 楼主| 发表于 15-6-2017 08:02 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ERASES LOSSES. SUPPORT TARGETED



EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair climbed before the Federal Funds Rate release, on the back of disappointing values for the U.S. CPI and Retail Sales. However, the Fed increased the rate to <1.25% as expected and Fed Chair Yellen was mostly hawkish during her Press Conference, so the US Dollar erased most of the previous losses.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.1280 was breached yesterday but the bulls couldn’t break the barrier at 1.1300 and a hawkish Yellen press conference fuelled the greenback, erasing almost all losses. Strictly from a technical point of view, the pair is showing clear rejection at 1.1280 resistance and this makes the short term bias bearish. If the pair remains below 1.1240 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect a break of 1.1170.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair will not be affected by major economic indicator releases today, so the main focus will be on the technical aspect. The impact of yesterday’s events will likely extend to today’s trading session.


GBP/USD

Both the Pound and US Dollar were affected by disappointing data during the first part of yesterday’s trading session and this created a lot of back and forth action. Later in the day, Fed Chair Yellen’s speech was the catalyst for a move lower.



Technical Outlook

After breaking 1.2770 resistance and breaching the 50 period EMA, the pair reversed and is now trading below resistance once again. The pair remains volatile and without a clear direction but we believe that the hawkish stance adopted by Fed’s Yellen will generate additional downwards pressure. As long as the pair is trading below the Moving Average and below 1.2770 resistance, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are released at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. Usually this indicator has a high impact, and numbers above forecast, which for today is -0.9%, strengthen the Pound.

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current 0.25%), along with the Monetary Policy Summary, which contains insights into the reasons that determined the rate votes. Volatility is likely to surge, especially if there’s a notable change of stance in the MPC members’ votes.
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 楼主| 发表于 16-6-2017 10:45 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BACK WITH A VENGEANCE, FINISHING THE WEEK LOWER



EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar continued the momentum started a day before by the hawkish Yellen press conference and the pair had a strongly bearish session, breaking support decisively.



Technical Outlook

The bears are definitely winning the short term battle on the back of US Dollar strength but the pair is approaching an important hurdle represented by the support at 1.1120. Last time the pair touched this support, it bounced strongly to the upside, so the same scenario may happen again. If that is the case, we will probably see a move into 1.1170, which may turn into resistance. As long as the pair is trading below 1.1170, our bias is bearish, anticipating a move into 1.1075.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will be affected today at 9:00 am GMT by the release of the Final version of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index. This is the least important version of the CPI, but still, numbers above the forecast 1.4% can strengthen the currency.

On the US Dollar side we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, a survey that gauges the opinions of consumers about overall economic conditions. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 97.2; usually a reading above expectations strengthens the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged as expected, but surprisingly, 3 out of the 8 MPC members voted for an increase. This generated Pound strength but some of the gains were erased soon after.



Technical Outlook

The pair continues to show choppy price action and although volatility is pretty high, the direction is unclear. Yesterday’s price action shows rejection at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the pair is trading below 1.2770 resistance but on the other hand, the Pound is fuelled by the hawkish change in stance of the MPC voting members, so overall the pair is in neutral territory. As long as price remains below the 50 EMA, our bias is slightly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important releases for today, so the main focus will be on the technical side but the pair will be influenced by the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey.
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 楼主| 发表于 19-6-2017 08:55 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: PRICE REACHES DYNAMIC RESISTANCE. BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIOS IN PLAY



EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the US Dollar was weakened by disappointing values for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the Building Permits, so overall the pair showed bullish price action, reaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

After coming close to 1.1120 support, price started to climb and stopped at the 50 EMA; however, this happened because the markets closed for the weekend, so we cannot say for sure if we are dealing with rejection or if the pair will continue upwards. The question will be answered today: a break will make 1.1240 the first target, while a bounce lower will take price into 1.1170 and possibly 1.1120. We slightly favour a move lower because lately the pair has been under bearish pressure.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar lacks major events for both currencies in the pair, so the technical aspect will prevail. It must be noted however that FOMC Member Dudley will speak at 12:00 pm GMT and FOMC Member Evans will speak at 11:00 pm GMT and this could generate increased volatility but the impact depends on the matters discussed and cannot be anticipated.


GBP/USD

Price continued its choppy movement Friday and breached the 50 period Exponential Moving Average only to return below it almost immediately. Overall we didn’t see clear determination from either part, and the pair is mostly ranging.



Technical Outlook

The last candles are showing long wicks, mostly in their upper side, which is a sign of rejection. This makes us anticipate a drop below 1.2770 if the 50 period EMA is not broken. However, the pair lacks clear direction so we cannot rule out a bullish move, which will probably find resistance at 1.2820. Overall, we expect a slow trading session today.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases, so the main focus will be on the technical side.
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 楼主| 发表于 20-6-2017 10:31 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS RECOVERY SIGNS. SUPPORT IN DANGER



EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the fundamental scene lacked any major releases and Mondays are typically slow days, so all this translated into slow trading, with price confined in a 50 pip range for most of the say.



Technical Outlook

Although yesterday the pair didn’t cover a lot of distance, it is now clear that the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is providing a strong resistance, rejecting price lower. If 1.1170 support can be broken decisively, we expect to see a move into 1.1120 but we cannot exclude the possibility of a bounce at 1.1170 and a move above the 50 EMA. If this is the case, then 1.1240 will become the first target. As long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA the bias is slightly bearish but neither side is in clear control.

Fundamental Outlook

FOMC Member Fischer will speak today at 12:00 pm GMT and later at 7:00 pm GMT, FOMC Member Kaplan will speak at a different venue. These speeches are the only notable events for today but we don’t expect them to trigger huge movement unless surprising matters are discussed.


GBP/USD

Trading remained choppy yesterday, as the pair continued to print candles with long wicks, showing indecision. However, later in the day the bears managed to take control and to take the pair below 1.2770.


Technical Outlook

The bearish momentum started yesterday is likely to continue during today’s session and we may see a move closer to 1.2690 but that target will not be reached during the course of one day probably, considering the lack strong movement seen during the last period. The Pound is under bearish pressure but it remains high-risk due to Brexit negotiations and an uncertain political scene.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 7:30 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak at the Mansion House dinner, in London. The Pound is likely to show increased volatility at the time and as always, caution should be used when heads of central banks speak publicly.
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 楼主| 发表于 21-6-2017 08:18 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR RULES THE ACTION, POUND WEAKENED BY CARNEY’S COMMENTS



EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a choppy session yesterday but overall the bears won the battle and broke 1.1170 after the bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

The next destination seems to be the support located at 1.1120, followed by 1.1075. The market has a bearish bias and the US Dollar is strengthening but a clear trend is not in place, so we will probably see moves to the north when price encounters support and the Relative Strength Index becomes oversold. As long as these potential rallies don’t extend past the 50 period EMA, our bias remains bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic scene remains slow today, with the U.S. Existing Home Sales being the only notable release. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold during the reported month (excluding new houses) and has a medium impact on the US Dollar. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 5.54 million.


GBP/USD

The Pound was weakened by dovish comments made by BOE Governor Carney during his speech at the Mansion House, so the pair showed a strongly bearish session yesterday, breaking the first support and even breaching 1.2635.



Technical Outlook

The minor support at 1.2690 was easily broken yesterday and the pair continued through the more important 1.2635. Now the next destination is 1.2570 and once price gets there, we anticipate a move higher due to the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and the fact that the pair traveled a long distance south in a relatively short period of time, without retracement.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight for the Pound will be the release of the British Public Sector Net Borrowing, an indicator that shows the difference between spending and income for the public sector. A negative number shows excess and a positive number shows deficit; today’s forecast is a deficit of 7.3 billion, while the previous was 9.6 billion and usually a lower number strengthens the Pound but the impact is often mild. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT.
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 楼主| 发表于 23-6-2017 12:05 AM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: POUND RATE HIKE SPECULATION BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT



EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action remained slow yesterday, mostly due to the lack of major economic releases, but the pair reached 1.1120 target almost to the pip and then retraced higher.



Technical Outlook

The pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.1170, so the bias remains negative, anticipating a break of 1.1120, followed by a move into 1.1075. It must be noted that 1.1120 acted as solid support yesterday, pushing price higher as soon as it was touched, so this level will probably play an important role in today’s price action. The way price behaves near it will determine the next direction: a break will show bearish pressure, while another bounce at this level will establish it as strong support and will probably take the pair into the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of the week, today is a slow day in terms of economic indicators. The only notable release is the U.S. Unemployment Claims, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to post a reading of 241K. Higher numbers usually weaken the US Dollar but the impact is low-to-medium because the indicator is released weekly.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened yesterday, after Queen Elizabeth said that the government’s priority is securing the best Brexit deal. Also, BOE Chief Economist Haldane renewed hopes of a rate hike sooner rather than later and this was another catalyst behind yesterday’s spike.



Technical Outlook

The pair spiked higher mostly due to the fundamental reasons outlined above but it bounced lower after reaching the psychological level at 1.2700. As seen from yesterday’s price action, the Pound can become very volatile, depending on any news, speculation or rumours regarding Brexit or rate hikes, so we recommend caution and we consider this pair high-risk. As long as the pair remains below the 50 EMA our bias is bearish but a break above 1.2690 – 1.2700 will probably trigger a move above the moving average.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic indicators for today, so the technical aspect will prevail, assuming there are no other surprises.
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 楼主| 发表于 23-6-2017 11:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS. PREPARING FOR ANOTHER BIG DROP?



EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair climbed into 1.1170 resistance but there it paused and started to move lower. Rejection is present at support as well as resistance, so the control doesn’t clearly belong to either side.



Technical Outlook

Price reacts almost perfectly to support and resistance as seen from the latest price action (it bounced at 1.1120 and stopped at 1.1170) but the pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so our outlook remains bearish, anticipating a break of 1.1120 and a move into 1.1075. If the buyers can break the confluence zone created by the 50 EMA and by 1.1170 resistance, this will show bullish pressure and will make 1.1240 the target for the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT the Euro will be affected by the release of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey of about 3,000 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector, regarding economic health and overall business conditions in the said sector. The forecast is 56.9 and usually, higher numbers strengthen the Euro. At the same time the Services PMI is released, with an expected reading of 56.2.

On the US Dollar side we have the New Home Sales, scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 599K. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold during the reported month but the impact is usually low.


GBP/USD

The pair slowed down after the spike seen a day before but it must be noted that the bulls couldn’t continue the momentum and price slowly descended throughout yesterday’s session.



Technical Outlook


The resistance at 1.2690 – 1.2700 is holding and the bullish momentum seems to have faded because for an entire day the pair didn’t even try to retest the previous high. If price remains below 1.2690, today we expect to see a drop below 1.2635. The overall picture is bearish but the pair lacks determination and price action is choppy.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today, so the pair’s movement will be decided mainly by the technical side.
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 楼主| 发表于 26-6-2017 12:15 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: THE EURO SHOWS MILD STRENGTH AHEAD OF ECB’S FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING




EUR/USD


Forex News: European PMI values were mixed Friday but the pair had a bullish day nonetheless, mostly on the back of US Dollar weakness. The pair is now trading above previous resistance and the short term bias is bullish.



Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.1170 were broken decisively Friday and this makes us anticipate a climb into 1.1240, followed by a small bounce lower. The Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought by the time price reaches the mentioned resistance and a clear trend is not in place, so an overbought oscillator is likely to trigger a move lower. If the pair doesn’t reach the mentioned target and instead starts to move lower, we expect a touch of 1.1120 today or possibly tomorrow.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s first release is the German IFO Business Climate, a survey with a very large sample of about 7,000 businesses that tries to gauge the respondents’ opinions regarding economic conditions, as well as a 6-month outlook. The time of the release is 8:00 am and the expected reading is 114.7; higher numbers show optimism and usually strengthen the currency.

Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released, showing changes in the total value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. A higher change than the forecast 0.4% suggests increased economic activity and usually strengthens the US Dollar.

The European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking starts today in Portugal and ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver an opening statement at 5:30 pm GMT. The Euro may react strongly to his speech, so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair had a bullish bias and climbed above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but started to show indecision after breaking this resistance. Overall price action remains choppy and without clear direction.



Technical Outlook

The move above 1.2690 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average opens the door for a touch of 1.2770, but as seen from Friday’s price action, the last few candles are showing long wicks and this is a sign of indecision. As long as the pair is trading above the 50 EMA our bias is slightly bullish but given the current situation, a drop could happen anytime.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no notable indicators on the Pound’s economic calendar for today so the pair’s direction will be mostly decided by the U.S. Durable Goods and the technical aspect.
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 楼主| 发表于 27-6-2017 07:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
FOREX NEWS: THREE KEY SPEECHES, THREE HUGE REASONS FOR VOLATILITY



EUR/USD


Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey posted a better than expected value, while the U.S. Durable Goods Orders disappointed, so the Euro won yesterday’s battle with the US Dollar and the pair finished higher.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair descended, touching 1.1170 to the pip and then bouncing higher. This established the level as support and makes the short term bias bullish, with 1.1240 as first target. If and when the pair touches the mentioned resistance, we expect to see a pullback, mainly because the Relative Strength Index will become overbought and the pair is not in a strong trend.

Fundamental Outlook


Early at 8:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Portugal at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking. We don’t know how this speech will affect the currency but caution is recommended every time heads of central banks speak publicly.

On the US Dollar side we have the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey, scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT. The forecast for this survey is 116.2 (previous 117.9) and a higher value shows increased consumer confidence and possibly higher consumer spending levels in the near future; this in turn strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is not huge.

The final event of the day is a speech of Fed Chair Yellen, focused on global economy and delivered at the British Academy 'President's Lecture', in London. The scheduled time is 5:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD


The pair showed choppy price action yesterday, first dropping below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and then immediately jumping higher, close to the high of the day.



Technical Outlook

Even if the bears didn’t manage to break the 50 period EMA, the current move up lacks strength and seems exhausted. That’s the main reason why today we expect to see another attempt to break the Moving Average, and possibly a move into 1.2690. If price remains above the 50 EMA, the most likely target is 1.2770 but we don’t expect a break unless Carney’s press conference triggers Pound strength.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Financial Stability Report and half an hour later BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, discussing the Report. These two events call for caution because they could easily trigger volatility and possibly erratic price action.
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