311 美元指数挑战100关口，黄金命悬一线

aidj

@行动人

除了是日本311四周年纪念，
今日会不会是美国大日子？
等下纽约开市。。。

先进广告
稍后回来

大马时间3月11日21:30左右,美元指数突破99,最高至99.51,创2003年4月以来的近12年新高。


今日美元可能进一步走强，这将会持续打压金价，但是亚洲的黄金需求正在增强，并可能在一定程度上支撑金价。


美元走强通常会削弱黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，并使得其它非美货币持有者觉得黄金更昂贵。




同时，欧元/美元继续走低，刷新12年新低1.06。


在美元“展翅高飞”的背后是近乎完美的数据显推升了市场对于美联储将在6月升息的预期。


在这个背景下,资本的大规模外流是有可能的。


一旦资本大规模外流,必然对经济造成冲击。



看看牛刀怎么说

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Red sky warnings on U.S. dollar, equities

That Apple top call doesn’t seem so far-fetched now that the blue chips just took their biggest beating in five months, does

it? Or is Tuesday’s carnage just another opportunity for the dip buyers who have been getting fat on nearly every market

pullback this past year?

It’s beginning to feel different to Michael O’Rourke of Jones Trading.

“We are starting to believe that the lack of sustained headway in the past few months is a sign that the tipping point is

imminent,” he said. “What continues to remain lost in all the headlines is how serious the earnings situation has

deteriorated.”

With all that Greek noise and the Rattle and Hum of Apple, there hasn’t been much room to stress over earnings season. Now

that 98% of earnings are in, O’Rourke kicked around some numbers, and they’re not pretty. While estimates for the first two

quarters of 2015 have turned negative, fourth-quarter growth is still slated to be 20%. Could that possibly hold?

“That seems unlikely,” he said. “If the market begins to acknowledge that earnings growth will be negative for 2015, it could

serve as a negative tipping point.”



Sharing center stage with the turbulent equities action is the irrepressible advance of the U.S. dollar and the fear it’s

striking — or should be striking — in the hearts of U.S. investors. With the dollar at a 12-year high against the euro

EURUSD, -0.96% and with parity looming somewhere over the Aegean, Corporate America could be in for some pain overseas.

Erik Swarts of the Market Anthropology went with the nautical theme when he launched into his thoughts on what’s going on in

currency markets.

“It’s been an everlasting red sunrise on the decks of those participants looking to navigate the narrows of the lost

reflationary straits,” he said. Red sky at morning?

While Swarts believes that currencies are ripe “for a significant reversal of trends,” Jeff Gundlach says investors should

seek refuge with the crowd on the bull side of the dollar (more on that below).

Key market gauges
There’s a rebound in the works this morning. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average YMH5, +0.18%  and the S& 500 ESH5,

+0.27%  are showing signs of life after yesterday’s tumble. Sellers generally kept a lid on Asia markets ADOW, -0.65% though

the Nikkei NIK, +0.31%  edged up. Europe SXXP, +1.23%  is starting out nicely. Crude CLJ5, +0.23%  is up almost 2% but can’t

seem to retake $50 a barrel. Gold GCJ5, -0.15%  is nudging higher.

The quote
“She did not want the witch hunters in Washington to have access to her emails. That’s it. She has been there and has the

scars to show for it and did what any intelligent person with balls would do. She opted out. And she got away with it for

four years.” — Venture capitalist Fred Wilson, on Hillary Clinton’s use of private email when she served as secretary of

state.

The buzz
Patrick Pichette is leaving Google GOOG, +0.72%  after seven years as the Internet giant’s CFO. He’s doing it to spend more

time with his family. That’s the first sentence in his departure note, anyway. It got a lot less cliché from there as he gave

a candid glimpse of life after a hard-core career, in an empty nest, with a wife yearning to see more of the world. And yes,

the stock is lower.

Earnings
The season is pretty much over, but there are some stragglers headed our way today, including Express EXPR, +7.02% Krispy

Kreme KKD, +1.03% Shake Shack SHAK, -0.72%  and Men’s Wearhouse MW, +0.23% As for movers, VeriFone Systems PAY, +0.63%  

shares are up 2% premarket after the company managed to squeak past Wall Street targets.

The call
“Don’t do it!” If you’re looking for a good contrarian play, just stay clear of the U.S. dollar DXY, +0.65% DoubleLine

Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach warned in a webcast late yesterday. The smart money is big-time long the greenback, but don’t let

that shake you off the crowded trade because “the consensus is right,” he said. Gundlach pointed out that currency trends

tend to last “a very long time.” Plus, he said the U.S. economy is better off than the eurozone. DoubleLine Capital overseas

$64 billion in assets.

Check out Wonkblog’s take on why the U.S. is losing the currency war.



The chart
China’s upper crust may be growing, but it’s also leaving in droves, as you can see by this chart. All told, 76,200 of the

country’s multimillionaires have moved abroad over the past decade. Per capita, it looks like France, with hefty taxes on

high earners, is the big loser. Their top destination — a surprise to nobody who’s roamed the streets of South Kensington

lately — is the United Kingdom, where 114,000 of the uber-rich have settled. Singapore came in second, and the U.S. third,

according to the data cited by The Wall Street Journal.



Random reads
Odds of an 8.0 shaker in California just got a lot less remote.

Beware of Scottish thugs in tweed.

The girl with the Rihanna tattoos. Everywhere.

And this year’s winner for best performance in an animated GIF goes to skateboarding Barack Obama. Hard to beat Oprah and her bees, though.

Open-carry nutjob taunts police on school grounds.

aidj

Warren王周三在《瘋狂華爾街》節目中表示：“歡迎來到《瘋狂華爾街》。昨天，美-股大幅下跌，不少投資人認為美元持續快速地走強是原因。接下來是本網前方特派記者對上-個交易日市場的回顧和分析師JAY的市場分析。”

aidj

大马时间3月11日23:00左右,美元指数继续刷新高点至99.64.

aidj

大马时间3月11日23:30左右,
石油 跌 48
黄金 1148 +/-2

aidj

aidj 发表于 11-3-2015 11:40 PM
大马时间3月11日23:30左右,
石油 跌 48
黄金 1148 +/-2

周三，投资者担心美联储过早加息和强势美元伤害美国经济，美股再度下挫。欧元创12年新低，美元指数盘中逼近100。强势美元抑制黄金，金价创四个月新低。美国上周EIA原油库存总量再创新高，美油收跌，表现远弱于布油。

完整见：http://wallstreetcn.com/node/215124

kkk_0

跟着趋势走,

aidj

kkk_0 发表于 14-3-2015 10:01 PM
跟着趋势走,

发表了博文《牛刀：美元指数100点后发生的巨变》美元指数100点后发生的巨变2015年3月13日，这注定是一个值得全球经济史一个值得纪念的日子，美元指数100点后，全球经济格局将发生历史性变化。
http://t.cn/RweC06m



2014/11/29 USD68.20/bbl RM3.37702014/12/2  USD64.10/bbl RM3.4240
2014/12/31 USD57.15（-54.44，48.79%）==〉3.4950 那鸡合理水平
2015/1/3 USD57.10 RM3.5150

2015/1/16 USD48.48
2015/3/13 USD44.84 3.7117

=========================
9/3/2015 3.691 3.678
10/3/2015 3.705 3.686
11/3/2015 3.718 3.6965
12/3/2015 3.700 3.677
13/3/2015 3.699 3.681


多美金价
20/12/2014 175
22/12/2014 180
8/1/2015 170
22/1/2015 180

kkk_0

高盛集团在其最新的一份研究报告中指出，美元并不存在“多头仓位过重”这一说法，即便出现短期的调整也是正常现象。
　　高盛认为，回撤不是什么新鲜事，美元自从去年中期以来走强过程中不乏遭遇回撤。而在市场认为多头仓位过重的呼声中，美元却一次又一次的不断走强。
　　高盛称，外汇市场头寸数量很难做到精确计量，即使是被广泛接受的CFTC持仓报告，也仅占到外汇市场交投总额的5%左右。美元大幅走高存在基本面支撑，即欧洲和日本央行实施QE而美联储即将升息的鲜明对比。前端和长期利差急剧扩大的情况下，美元升值符合逻辑。
　　高盛总结认为，头寸数量很难精确判断，价格行为更为关键，美元严重超买言过其实。近期的走强就是一个很好的证明，这表明市场继续追赶强势美元的主题。预计美元将继续走高来迎接FOMC会议。

sunday2013

13晚美元指数站上100点，还以为黄金会大跌!

aidj

100.30 1056.6

aidj

aidj 发表于 15-3-2015 11:43 AM
发表了博文《牛刀：美元指数100点后发生的巨变》美元指数100点后发生的巨变2015年3月13日，这注定是一个值得全球经济史一个值得纪念的日子，美元指数100点后，全球经济格局将发生历史性变化。
http:/ ...

跌回2015年水平！美元溃败 原因何在？
http://wallstreetcn.com/node/296548
http://wallstreetcn.com/node/296562



21/3/2017 @4:40pm DXY100.00 4.4285 SGD 3.16 63

aidj

【非科普】关于黄金，你可能还不知道……

aidj

Brent <85 https://youtu.be/hng0UkMokb8

aidj

aidj 发表于 22-11-2022 03:24 AM
Brent

上一次9月


黑色星期五油价暴跌逾5% 金价跌穿1656美元- 财经
24 Sept 2022 — 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌4.75美元，收于每桶78.74美元，跌幅为5.69%；11月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌