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【~~novice05~~个人专区】持续学习中。。。

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 楼主| 发表于 14-7-2016 02:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 novice05 于 14-7-2016 02:03 PM 编辑

7年来首次降息。新行长的第一个惊喜?

Bank Negara cuts OPR by 25bps for the first time since 2009
By Gho Chee Yuan / theedgemarkets.com   | July 13, 2016 : 3:49 PM MYT   

KUALA LUMPUR (July 13): Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has cut its key interest rate to 3% from 3.25% presently, the first cut since February 2009. The last time the overnight policy rate (OPR) was reduced was in response to the 2008–09 global financial crisis.

In a statement today, the central bank warned that there are increasing signs of moderating growth momentum in major economies going forward.

"The adjustment to the OPR is intended for the degree of monetary accommodativeness to remain consistent with the policy stance to ensure that the domestic economy continues on a steady growth path amid stable inflation, supported by continued healthy financial intermediation in the economy," it said.

BNM added that the ceiling and floor rates of the corridor for the OPR are correspondingly reduced to 3.25% and 2.75% respectively, following the OPR adjustment.

"The global economy continues to record growth at a more moderate pace, across major advanced and emerging market economies," it said.

In Asia, the central bank said the persistent weakness in the external sector has weighed on growth, although domestic demand remains supportive.

The central bank's action was contrary to the expectations of 13 economists polled by Reuters, who had expected BNM to hold the OPR as the economy appears resilient despite volatility in the global markets following the British exit (Brexit) vote.

However, BNM said today global growth prospects have become more susceptible to increased downside risks in light of possible repercussions from Brexit.

"International financial markets could also be subject to greater volatility going forward. In this light, global monetary conditions are expected to remain highly accommodative," the central bank explained.

On the home front, BNM said domestic demand continues to be the main driver of growth and said private consumption will be supported by growth in income and employment, and measures implemented by the government.

Although noting the investment in the oil and gas sector is moderating, it said overall investment is expected to be supported by the ongoing implementation of infrastructure projects and capital spending in the manufacturing and services sectors.

"Exports are projected to remain weak following more subdued demand from Malaysia's key trading partners," it added.

It pointed out that though domestic economy remains on track to expand in 2016 and 2017, the uncertainties in the global environment could weigh on Malaysia's growth prospects.

Inflation was lower as the impact from the goods and services tax implemented in April 2015 lapsed and is expected to remain stable in an environment of low global energy and commodity prices and generally subdued global inflation.

Consequently, the central bank projected inflation to be lower at 2% to 3% this year, compared to an earlier projection of 2.5% to 3.5%, and continue to remain stable in 2017.

"Overall domestic financial conditions have remained stable since the previous MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting with financial markets continuing to function in an orderly manner," it said.

According to the central bank, the risks of destabilising financial imbalances have receded.

"Both macro and micro prudential measures as well as supervisory oversight have resulted in more prudent lending standards and contained speculative activities in the property market," it added.

BNM said the MPC will continue to monitor and assess the balance of risks surrounding the outlook for domestic growth and inflation.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/bank-negara-cuts-opr-25bps-first-time-2009
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 楼主| 发表于 14-7-2016 06:35 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 novice05 于 14-7-2016 07:00 PM 编辑

Peter Lynch (彼得.林區)的精彩语录(1)。

要得到11%的报酬率,你必须保证不管情况是好是坏,都对股票保持忠诚-这像婚姻一样,是你的钱和投资之间的婚姻。你可能是分析公司的天才,但除非你有耐心和勇气坚守股票,否则你很可能沦为一个平庸的投资人。好投资人和坏投资人的差别往往不是聪明才智,更重要的纪律。

要站在镜子前发誓当长期投资人,并对股票保持忠诚很容易办到。问一群人有谁是长期投资人,你会发现所有人都举起手来。现在已经很难找到有人说自己不是长期投资人了,但真正的考验来自于股票下跌时。

他们在不知不觉中落入想抓市场时机的陷阱。如果你说他们是”市场时机操作者“(market timer),他们会断然否认。但任何人若因为股市或涨或跌而卖出股票,就一定是时机操作者。

市场时机操作者尝试预测短期的股价涨跌,希望从中快速获利。少有人能靠这种方式赚钱,没有人想出万无一失的方法。事实上,如果有人想出如何持续预测市场的方法,他或她的名字早就登上世界富豪榜了,而且肯定超越巴菲特和盖兹。

尝试预测市场时机,最后一定让你在股市最低点,正要回升时卖出股票,而且在股票上涨到最高,正要反转下跌时买进股票。人们认为这种事情发生在自己身上是因为运气不好,事实上是因为他们尝试做不可能办到的事。没有人比市场还聪明。

人们也认为在崩盘或修正时投资股票很危险,但那时只有卖股票才危险。他们忘记另一种危险-在股市大幅回升的美妙时刻却没有投资股票。

少数几个关键的日子就能决定你整个投资计划的成败,以下就是一个经典例子。在1980年代连续5年的多头市场里,故事每年上涨26.3%。有纪律的投资人若坚守投资计划,就能让投资增值一倍多。但这些增值大部分发生在那五年股市开盘日1,276天中的40天。如果你那40天为了避开下一个修正而未持有股票,你的26.3%报酬就会降到4.3%。当时银行定存的报酬率都超过4.3%,而且风险小得多。

- “学以致富 - 投资基本原则“

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 楼主| 发表于 15-7-2016 05:34 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 novice05 于 19-7-2016 12:33 PM 编辑

值得记录一下。过了大半年,组合回酬今年来终于转青。

Photo 19-07-2016, 12 28 11 PM.png
RHB.png
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 楼主| 发表于 18-7-2016 10:43 AM | 显示全部楼层
2016年大马汽车销量截至5月累计193,953俩, 对比2015年下滑17.6% http://paultan.org/2016/06/21/may-2016-malaysian-car-sales/

Auto sector’s 1Q16 earnings generally disappointing
By Kenanga Research / The Edge Financial Daily   | July 18, 2016 : 10:06 AM MYT   

Automotive sector

Maintain underweight: First quarter of 2016 (1Q16) earnings were generally disappointing as most of our coverage, with the exception of Berjaya Auto Bhd (BAuto), generated poor results below expectations. DRB-Hicom Bhd, MBM Resources Bhd, Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd and UMW Holdings Bhd were adversely affected by lower sales volumes resulting from sluggish consumer sentiment. In addition, unfavourable foreign-exchange (forex) exposure narrowed profit margins of their respective automotive segment. UMW’s earnings were further aggravated by losses in its equipment and oil and gas segments. Only BAuto generated positive earnings growth with better-than-expected sales of its Mazda flagship models, namely Mazda2, Mazda3 and CX-5 in both the domestic and Philippine markets. Post-results, we maintain all ratings for our coverages, but upgrade the TP for BAauto to RM2.62 from RM2.41 in lieu of better sales expectations. Meanwhile, we upgrade the TP for MBM Resources to RM2.37 from RM2.30, and UMW to RM4.95 from RM4.89, as we roll over our valuations to financial year 2017 estimated earnings. Following this, we downgrade the TP for DRB-Hicom to 76 sen from 80 sen, and Tan Chong Motor to RM1.76 from RM2.15, as we adjust for lower earnings assumptions.

May 2016 total industry volume (TIV) was recorded at 44,669 units, continuing the negative year-on-year (y-o-y) growth trend since January 2016 (-13% y-o-y; +6% month-on-month [m-o- m]). Weaker sales continued to persist due to weakness in consumer sentiment, especially for big-ticket discretionary items. More stringent lending guidelines further worsened the situation as lower approval rates deterred new car buyers. However, we believe the impact of the goods & services tax on consumer sentiment has softened as consumers are becoming more accustomed to the higher price levels for daily expenditures. Our assumption is also backed by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research’s Consumer Sentiments Index, which recorded 72.9 points in May 2016, from 63.8 in April 2016, indicating the first sign of recovery from passive spending over rising prices. On a m-o-m basis, Proton appeared to lead growth numbers at 13%, which we believe was the result of returning interest from lower-income groups and a lower sales volume base in April 2016. Toyota and Nissan trailed with a 9% growth each, which we believe was likely on similar reasons, but from offering affordable B-segment options (such as Toyota Vios and Nissan Almera). On a y-o-y basis, Mazda was the only marque that displayed improvement with a 9% y-o-y growth, likely driven by the rising popularity of its flagship models, the Mazda2, Mazda3 and CX-3. Proton declined the greatest in y-o-y terms by 39% as the Proton Iriz, which was highly popular in May 2015, could have lost interest from buyers.

We are counting on new model launches in the second half of 2016 (2H16) to stimulate the sector. While challenging economic conditions and rising cost of living have been mainly attributed to weakness in the sector, a lack of new models by the major marques, such as Toyota, Proton and Perodua, up until now is also not helping to stimulate buying interest. However, we believe our national marques will see some much-needed boost in unit sales with the recent unveiling of the new Proton Perdana, the upcoming rebadged Suzuki Ertiga MPV by Proton, and the new Perodua Bezza sedan in 2H16.

Other forthcoming model launches, such as the new Honda Civic, BRV, facelift City, Jazz and Accord, diesel engine models from Mazda, and the new Toyota Hilux, Fortuner, Innova and upgraded Vios, are anticipated to attract consumers back to the automotive market. Year to date, five months of 2016 TIV of 218,101 units comprises 35% of our 2016 forecast of 621,000 units. We maintain our current forecast in anticipation that 2H16 sales will pick up to meet our estimates.

BAuto remains our top pick as we view it as a rose among the thorns, given its targeted customer base in the middle- to high-income bracket that is less sensitive to the rising cost of living.

More positively, the recent management buyout could also remove the overhang on its shares, while a positive knee-jerk reaction could be reflected in the share price in the foreseeable future. All in, we are still optimistic about its investment merits, supported by: i) better growth prospects from a low base, on the back of a strong pipeline of exciting models; ii) relatively stable margins benefiting from lower import duties under the free-trade agreement with Japan; and iii) a potential dividend payout of approximately 70%, which translates into a fair dividend yield of approximately 7.8%. BAuto is currently trading at an undemanding valuation of 11 times forward price-earnings ratio (PER), which is below the industry’s average forward PER of 20.1 times. Risks to our call include: i) adverse forex exposure to the yen; and ii) weaker-than-expected automotive sales. — Kenanga Research, July 15
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/auto-sector%E2%80%99s-1q16-earnings-generally-disappointing
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 楼主| 发表于 18-7-2016 11:02 AM | 显示全部楼层
Brexit后全球股市飙涨,大马股市却没跟上。印尼股市终于赶超大马和泰国,成为东南亚最值钱的新兴市场。

Indonesia Becomes Asean’s Most-Valuable Emerging Market: Chart

-1x-1.png

Indonesia has overtaken Malaysia and Thailand as the biggest emerging market in Southeast Asia. The combined value of companies traded in Indonesia reached $416 billion this week and has exceeded its neighbors for more than a month, the longest stretch since early 2013. Although Thailand held the top slot briefly, Malaysia was the leader most of the past three years, but stocks in Asia’s only net oil exporting nation plunged with crude, paving the way for Indonesia’s ascent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-13/indonesia-becomes-asean-s-most-valuable-emerging-market-chart

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 楼主| 发表于 19-7-2016 11:44 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 novice05 于 19-7-2016 11:49 AM 编辑

投资心得(1)

1)个股小跌/调整(跌幅>10%) - 可以用股息/存款/额外收入加码average down

2) 整个大市大跌/熊市 (跌幅>30%) - 可以用个人存款/股息/马金加码

3)个股上升趋势 - 可以用马金average up,可是用马金average up的部分必须在某程度的获利后套利。用自身资金买入的则无需急于套利。

执行策略前,您必须非常清楚自己在干什么。前提是持股必须是有素质的公司。
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发表于 19-7-2016 04:56 PM 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层
请问,楼主可否分享 8k 的文章
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发表于 20-7-2016 11:46 PM | 显示全部楼层
一直看很久,就是不知道从哪里开始学起,谷歌和论坛都看了,我都乱鸟。
大大,有没有给小白简易的教学课程学习一下。或者书本,或者网页的也可以。
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 楼主| 发表于 21-7-2016 09:58 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 novice05 于 21-7-2016 10:01 AM 编辑
wuyaya 发表于 20-7-2016 11:46 PM
一直看很久,就是不知道从哪里开始学起,谷歌和论坛都看了,我都乱鸟。
大大,有没有给小白简易的教学课程学习一下。或者书本,或者网页的也可以。

假如你是新手,我建议你先看看KLSE.8K/冷眼的电子书,学习一点基本的投资/理财概念和数据。
基础打好了,接下来在论坛/网上学会比较快。


给我你的EMAIL,我寄PDF给你。

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发表于 21-7-2016 11:24 AM 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层
novice05 发表于 21-7-2016 09:58 AM
假如你是新手,我建议你先看看KLSE.8K/冷眼的电子书,学习一点基本的投资/理财概念和数据。
基础打好了,接下来在论坛/网上学会比较快。


给我你的EMAIL,我寄PDF给你。

可否也给我 pdf file
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 楼主| 发表于 21-7-2016 11:59 AM | 显示全部楼层
guohua 发表于 21-7-2016 11:24 AM
可否也给我 pdf file

email
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 楼主| 发表于 21-7-2016 12:38 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 22-7-2016 03:46 PM 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层
novice05 发表于 21-7-2016 12:38 PM
KLSE.8K的电子书下载 https://www.dropbox.com/sh/9fhknor6e8xbcbm/AAC001bzFQ7PcU2CK1A7lfD9a?dl=0

Tq , 获益良多
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 楼主| 发表于 22-7-2016 04:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 novice05 于 22-7-2016 09:48 PM 编辑

Peter Lynch (彼得.林區)的投资理念 (2)

彼得.林區在一次經典演講中,重點談到了他對股票的認識的幾個要點,他表示:“這些要點對我而言關係重大,並且我認為它們對試圖在股市中賺錢的人也有重要的作用。”

其核心觀點“股票市場常見的十個最危險的說法”如下:

危險的說法1:既然股價已經下跌了這麼多,它還能跌多少呢?

差不多在我剛開始為富達工作的時候,我很喜歡凱澤工業這隻股票。當時凱澤的股價從25美元跌至13美元。那時我就使用了危險的說法1這條規則。我們買入了美國證券交易歷史上規模最大的單一一宗交易。我們要就買入1250萬股,不然就買入了1450萬股,買入價是11.125美元,比市場價格低1.5美元。我說,’我們在這隻股票上面做的投資多好啊!它已經下跌至13美元。從25美元跌到這個水平,不可能跌得更低了。現在是11.125美元。

當凱澤的股價跌至9美元的時候,我告訴我母親,’趕緊買,既然股價已經下跌了這麼多,它不可能跌到更低。’幸運的是,我母親沒有聽從我的建議,因為股價在接下來3個月跌到4美元。

凱澤公司沒有負債,持有凱澤鋼鐵50%的股份、凱澤鋁業40%的股份、凱澤水泥、凱澤機械以及凱澤廣播30%的股份–該公司共計持有19家子公司。在那個時點,由於股價跌至4美元,1億美元可以把整個公司買下來。

回想那時,一架波音747飛機的售價是2400萬美元。如今,我想這麼多錢你連波音747的一個廁所都買不了,或許可以買一個引擎。不過那時凱澤工業公司的市值可以買下4架波音747飛機。該公司沒有負債。我不擔心它會破產。但是我買入得太早了,我們不能買入更多股份,因為我們已經達到了上限。

最終在4年之後,他們清算了他們持有的所有頭寸,結果這隻股票成為一個極好的投資。最後每股的價值是35美元或40美元。但是,僅僅因為一隻股票的價格已經下跌很多而買入不是一個好的投資思路。

危險的說法2:股價還能上漲多少?

危險的說法2和之前那個剛好相反,這和沃爾瑪(Walmart)的故事很像,“既然股價已經上漲了這麼多了,它怎麼可能還會漲得更高?”

我舉一個公司,你可能認為它不是成長型公司。1950年,菲力普莫利斯公司的股價是75美分。11年後的1961年,股價漲到2.5美元,上漲了3倍。你可能會說,對一個處於衰退行業的公司,該公司的產品很糟糕並且沒有前景來說,這麼大的漲幅已經夠多了。它還能漲到多高呢?它已經漲到2.5美元了。因此你可能會在1961年把它賣掉。

11年後的1972年,該公司的股價上升到28美元。從你在1961年賺了3倍賣出之後又上漲了11倍。1972年你可能會對自己說,既然股價已經上漲了這麼高,它還能漲到多高呢?然後你在股價上漲了11倍之後賣出,在上漲了3倍之後又上漲了5倍,你錯過了賺7倍利潤的機會。

因此我要說的是,不要捲入對股票表現的技術分析。股票評論員會使用所有這些術語、形容詞和開場白。如果一隻股票的價格上漲,他們不斷地添加新的稱謂。他們會說股價過於膨脹,然後是太高了,與內在價值嚴重不符,或者股價超級膨脹。他們掌握了所有描繪股票被過高定價的術語。

因此,股票的歷史表現和未來表現無關。公司的績效才與未來表現有關。

危險的說法3:我能賠多少?股價只有3美元

第三條危險的說法非常重要,我都能聽到這個說法:“股價3美元。我能賠多少?股價只有3美元。”

現在我們來做個算術,回到我們基本的數學知識。如果你買入兩隻股票,一隻股價為60美元,另外一隻6美元,你在這兩隻股票上面各投入1萬美元,如果他們的股價全都跌至0,你賠的錢完全一樣。這很明顯。結果就是這樣。人們就是不相信這一點。你們回家之後自己算一算就知道了。

很多人經常說,’天啊,這群笨蛋竟然買價格為60美元的股票,我買的股票只有6美元。我這個投資多好啊。’但是,注意觀察那些通過放空股票賺錢的人,他們不會在股價達到60或者70美元並且仍然處於上漲通道的時候放空這隻股票。他們選擇在股價下跌的過程中殺進來,在股價跌至3美元的時候放空。那麼是誰在接盤這些人放空的股票呢?就是那些說’股價只有3美元,還能跌到哪去’的人。

危險的說法4:最終,跌掉的全都將反彈回來

以RCA公司為例。它曾經是一家非常成功的企業。RCA的股價反彈回1929年的價位用了55年。可以看出,當時它過高定價的程度有多高。所以抱牢一隻股票並認為它終將反彈到某個價位的想法完全行不通。Johns Manville公司、移動房屋公司、雙排鈕針織服裝公司、軟盤公司–Winchester光盤驅動公司,記住這些公司,它們的股價跌下去之後就永遠沒有反彈回去。不要等待這些公司的股價反彈。

危險的說法5:情況糟糕得不能再糟糕了,我應該買入

僅僅因為公司的情況很慘淡而買入它的股票。當情況糟糕得不能再糟糕的時候就是買入的時候(是很危險的)。

1979年,美國有96000節鐵路貨運車廂。截至1981年,該數字減少到45000節。這是17年中的低谷。你對自己說,’鐵路貨運車廂已經從96000節下跌至45000節。這是17年中最糟糕的情形,還能變得有多糟呢?’

如果這是你買入的唯一原因,那麼1982年你將發現貨運車廂數量從45000節減少到17000節,並且在1983年又進一步減少到5700節。

僅僅因為某個行業的景氣狀況正在惡化這一個唯一的原因,而在這個行業投入大量資金是很危險的。

危險的說法6:當股價反彈到10美元的時候,我就賣出

一旦你說這句話,股價永遠不會反彈到10美元,永遠不會。

這種情況發生了多少次?你挑選了一個價格,然後說,“我不喜歡這隻股票,當股價回到10美元的時候,我就賣出。”

這種態度將讓你飽受折磨。股價可能會回到9.625美元,你等一輩子可能都等不到它回到10美元。如果你不喜歡一家公司,不管你當時的買入價是40美元還是4美元,如果公司成功的因素不在了,如果基本面變弱,那麼你應該忘記股票以前的價格走勢。

希望和祈禱股價上漲沒有任何用處。我曾經試著這麼做過,沒用。股票可不知道是你在持有它。

危險的說法7:永遠不賣長島照明公司

ConEd的股價在18個月之內下跌了80%,然後上漲至原來的6倍。印第安納州公共服務公司、灣州市政公司以及長島照明公司這三家公司每一家都下跌過75%,然後又出現了大幅上漲。德州一些質地良好的銀行,我說的這些銀行權益對資產的比率都在8%到9%,股價下跌了100%。公司是動態的。他們的發展是由一些力量推動的。你必須清楚這些力量是什麼。

人生的一個悲劇是有時候人們會繼承股票。他們繼承了一隻股票,不知道這隻股票是什麼,但是他們的母親告訴他們,“不管你做什麼,永遠不要出售長島照明公司的股票。”我說的不是閱讀報紙的財經版面。該公司有一個小型工廠叫Shoreham,這座工廠的建設已經逾期七、八年了,並且預算超支了50億到70億美元,人們不想要它。

危險的說法8:因為沒有買入而賠的錢

第八個危險說法很可怕:看看我因為沒有買入而賠的錢有多少啊。”“這個說法一直困擾著我。記住:如果你不持有某隻上漲的股票,趕快查你的銀行帳戶,你沒有損失一分錢。如果你看到家庭銷售網路的股價從6美元漲到60美元,並且你不持有該公司的股票,你並沒有賠30萬美元。只有當你持有股票並且股價從60美元跌至6美元的時候,你才會賠錢。

為踏空感到煩惱的人多得難以置信,根據我的想像,如果股市一天之內上漲了50點,有人可能會說,“我剛剛損失了280億美元。”

所以記住:如果你沒有買入某隻股票,然而股價後來漲了上去,你實際上並沒有賠錢。在美國,賠錢的唯一方式就是持有了某隻股票,然後股價下跌。這種情況我經歷了很多次。有一個很常見也很基本的事實是,如果你在一隻股票上面投入1000美元,除非你瘋了去做保證金交易,不然你的全部損失頂多是1000美元。

危險的說法9:這是下一個偉大的公司

危險的說法9很重要。不管什麼時候,當你聽到’這是下一個偉大公司’的時候,趕緊試著中斷你的思維不要聽後面的話,因為後面的話將永遠是激動人心的。下一個偉大的公司永遠都沒有成功過。下一個玩具反斗城沒有成功,下一個家德寶沒有成功,下一個施樂沒有成功–施樂自己做的也不是很好,下一個麥當勞等等都失敗了。

任何時候你聽到下一個什麼什麼的時候,不要理它就是了。

危險的說法10:股價上漲了,我的看法肯定是對的

股價上漲了,所以我的看法肯定是對的,或者股價下跌了,我的看法肯定是錯的。

這些電話永遠讓我覺得驚奇,有人來電說,’我不久前剛以10美元的價格買了一隻股票,現在它漲到14美元。你應該買這隻股票。’他這話是什麼意思?他10美元買進的,現在漲到了14美元,我為什麼應該買呢,就因為股價從10美元漲到了14美元嗎?顯然,人們覺得股價上漲的事實意味著他們是對的。

這並不意味著他們可以指點別人。這什麼都意味不了。我曾經在粉單市場上買入了一隻股票,股價從10美元漲到14美元,然後跌到3美分。我沒有開玩笑。我也買入過從10美元跌到6美元的股票,後來漲到60美元。我可能在6.125美元賣出了。
http://www.stockfeel.com.tw/%E5%BD%BC%E5%BE%97%C2%B7%E6%9E%97%E5%8D%80%EF%BC%9A%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%BA%BA%E8%A9%B2%E9%81%BF%E9%96%8B%E7%9A%84%E5%8D%81%E5%80%8B%E5%8D%B1%E9%9A%AA%E6%83%B3%E6%B3%95/


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 楼主| 发表于 28-7-2016 11:23 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 novice05 于 28-7-2016 11:26 AM 编辑

大马房产优势不再?曾几何时,大马称得上是房地产投资天堂,商业银行所提供的房贷按揭高达90%以上,市面上没有一类投资工具的融资杠杆可与之媲比,可惜好景不常在,时下银行不但收紧信贷,即使成功取得房贷,购屋者可能只取得70%或80%按揭。
作为高单价产品,没有充裕的房贷支撑,整个市场买气变得低迷不振,一众发展商夹在中间进退两难。

这一波房市寒流,显然比2008年更为难挨,各大小房地产发展商纷纷调整策略谋定而后动。95家上市房地产企业,超过60%的最新业绩和股价均随大市走软,只有25%逆流而上。

老行尊拿督黄腾亮,即大马房地产发展商会(Rehda)前会长接受本刊专访透露,其实外人都不知道现在的真实情况。他大胆披露,很多发展商目前都无法还钱给银行。发展商在买地的时候就跟银行借钱,利息每日计算。因此,计算现金流对发展商来说非常重要,同时也是决定一个计划推出与否的关键因素。
“一个楼盘在推出后就无法停下来,所有的建筑费用就透过买家支付的定金或买家银行分阶段付款来周转,当然,发展商本身也必须保留现金以备后用。”


“如果销售反应欠佳,或买方银行延误发放款项,对发展商可造成很大影响,加上购置土地的贷款要定时付还,所以发展商必须谨慎计算,时刻保持现金流来应付建筑成本,否则随时面对周转不灵而陷入停顿甚至烂尾。”

“建筑工程展开后,如果销售不理想,没有钱进来,发展商就必须跟银行商量贷款,因为工程不能停顿,若借不到钱就很难持续下去。”

他透露,有些发展商身陷财困,主要是成本计算错误,有些是房子定价过低,或者漏算了一些基本设施,例如排污设施或变电站的成本,最后导致入不敷出。
一言以蔽之,在发展商的账簿中,现金流绝对是救命草

本身在IJM Corp集团(IJM,3336)出任首席执行员兼董事经理的拿督孙兴存接受《星报房地产》专访指出,面对不明朗市况,IJM Corp计划减少推出高档房产计划,专注在可负担或中档房子领域,相信很多发展商也是如此做。

孙兴存保持一贯信心,认为目前市场不比以往差,因为目前的房贷利率只有4.5%,而1997年亚洲金融危机爆发时,房贷利率高达14%。但无可否认时下房屋价格与国民人均年收入比较,已经到达一个不容易负担的水平。


“以前人们买房子只求有瓦遮头,今天的情况完全不同,买家有更多不同要求。要吸引新生代买家,房子要更有卖点,包括绿色建筑、挑高天花以及各种设备。”

“有人说房地产出现泡沫,而且很快就要爆破,我不认为如此。当有一天你看到人们争相以低过市价20%至30%抛售房子,那才算是出现泡沫。”

“再看看2008年,当时每桶140美元的原油导致各行各业成本飞涨,加上美国次贷风暴的冲击,房地产再次走缓。当时的发展商数量不多,大家都减少推出新项目。”

“反观现在比较让人担心的是很多外行人也加入成为发展商。其实要当发展商并不简单,你必须兼备毅力和耐性,这行需要很长的酝酿期和高投资成本,跟其他生意不相同。”

“作为发展商,有很多為了符合法令或法规而投入的額外附加成本,这类法定要求是越来越严谨,也代表要支付的附加成本越来越高。”

他强调,买家面对贷款不足问题,发展商也同样面对不同程度的挑战。尤其土地成本不断推高,发展商的成本居高不下,房子价格也唯有越卖越贵。

最怕商用房地产
他说,过去这一段日子,并非所有房源都滞销,可负担房屋以及开放给外国人购买的高价房产的销情还不俗,尤其前者有市场刚性需求,只要地点不差都卖得相当好,反而是打房之后又碰上去年开始征收消费税的商用房地产(主要是工厂和商铺),才令发展商最头疼。


“譬如买价100万令吉商用房地产,印花税高达2万4000令吉,另加6万令吉消费税,总课税8万4000令吉,平白多给6万消费税,吓怕不少投资者。如果是200万令吉商铺,单单消费税就高达12万,加上印花税总共17万4000令吉。”


他强调,以前虽然也是照收印花税,但其他税项所费不多,现在消费税连同印花税双管齐下,买家平均必须缴付8%至9%税率,令许多投资者大感吃不消,导致商用房地产买气一落千丈。

黄腾亮预料要到2017年才有望解决银行房贷太严问题,他相信政府从过去一年多以来所征收的巨额消费税,可让当局放开手脚推动经济,使到资金市场更为活络,从而解决房贷不足问题。

本文来源:潮楼产业


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 楼主| 发表于 28-7-2016 11:34 AM | 显示全部楼层
6月汽车数据

MAA: June vehicle sales flat at 57,358
By Chester Tay / theedgemarkets.com | July 20, 2016 : 6:34 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (July 20): Sales of passenger and commercial vehicles in June totalled 57,358 units, down 0.14% compared with 57,436 units in the same month last year, said the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA).

Of this, 50,981 units were passenger vehicles and remaining 6,377 units were commercial vehicles, it said in a statement.

Compared to May, however, the June sales volume was higher by 29.5%, which MAA attributed to the Hari Raya festive season campaigns, aggressive sales and marketing campaigns by car companies, and new model launches.

Year-to-date, total industry volume was 14% lower than the previous corresponding period in 2015.

On the outlook for July, MAA said sales volume will be lower than June, as the pent up demand ended in June, and also because of the shorter working month in July due to the Hari Raya holidays.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/maa-june-vehicle-sales-flat-57358
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 楼主| 发表于 28-7-2016 11:35 PM | 显示全部楼层
当公司老板回购自家公司股票时,可以多加留意。

"Corporate insiders sell their own companies' stock for a number of reasons. But insiders usually buy their own shares for one reason: They think the stock is a bargain and has tremendous upside"
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发表于 1-8-2016 02:34 AM | 显示全部楼层
资料蛮齐全的~
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 楼主| 发表于 1-8-2016 10:30 AM | 显示全部楼层

欢迎常来 ~~
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 楼主| 发表于 1-8-2016 11:37 AM | 显示全部楼层
油气领域持续低迷,新加坡的油气服务领域撑不住了。几时到马来西亚?

Business | Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:36am EDT Related: DEALS
Swiber to wind up, biggest Singapore casualty of oil slump
SINGAPORE | BY ARADHANA ARAVINDAN AND ANSHUMAN DAGA
Singapore oilfield services firm Swiber Holdings Ltd (SWBR.SI) filed for liquidation facing hundreds of million of dollars in debt and a decline in orders, becoming the biggest local name to fall victim to the slump in oil prices.

Shares in other oil and gas-related companies dropped on the news, with the sector hard hit by a combination of weak oil prices, tumbling charter rates and clients either delaying or cancelling projects.

Swiber's shares have slumped by nearly 90 percent since mid-2014, taking its market value to just S$50 million ($37 million), while the company has flagged delays in orders, raising concerns and sparking demands for cash.

Smaller firm, Technics Oil & Gas Ltd (TECH.SI) was placed under judicial management this month, and analysts said other firms could face difficulties.

"If highly leveraged offshore and marine companies are unable to raise capital from equity markets, then they will be left with very little other options other than to file for liquidation or for judicial management," said Joel Ng, an analyst at KGI Fraser Securities.

Energy and offshore marine companies in Singapore have bonds totaling nearly S$1.2 billion ($881 million) due to mature over the next year-and-a-half, with S$615 million due over the next five months, according to IFR, a Thomson Reuters publication.

Swiber said in a statement filed early Thursday that a Singapore court had appointed provisional liquidators and a hearing to wind-up the company has been set for Aug. 19. bit.ly/2avDQ62

Trading in Swiber's stock was suspended, while shares in other oil and gas related companies such as Ezion Holdings (EZHL.SI), Marco Polo Marine (MAPM.SI) and Ezra Holdings (EZRA.SI) fell between 4 and 10 percent.

Shares in Vallianz Holdings (VHLD.SI), 25 percent-owned by Swiber, tumbled 44 percent.

From just 10 vessels in 2006 when it listed, Swiber had expanded to own and operate a fleet of 51 vessels and has more than 2,700 employees across Southeast Asia and other countries, according to its website.

Its shares surged after listing, pushing its valuation to S$1.5 billion in late-2007, but the stock fell sharply in recent years.

Swiber has faced a slew of bad news this month, including a delay on a $710 million project in West Africa and on a preference share sale agreement to raise $200 million.

It said on Thursday it had received letters of demand claiming a total of $25.9 million as of July 26, adding more pressure on the company.

Swiber has five bonds with a combined value of S$551 million that mature in 2016, 2017 and 2018, IFR said. Its total debt was a little over $1 billion at March 31.

The order book at Swiber, which has worked on projects for Brunei Shell Petroleum and Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC.NS), stood at $1.2 billion at May 13, down from $1.8 billion a year ago.

The High Court of Singapore appointed KordaMentha Pte Ltd's Cameron Duncan and Muk Siew Peng as provisional liquidators.

United Overseas Bank (UOBH.SI) chief executive Wee Ee Cheong said the lender had some exposure to Swiber, but the exposure was not a worry as it was "something manageable".

The Singapore Exchange (SGX) said in a statement it would investigate the company for any breaches of regulatory rules.

Swiber had made disclosures recently only after queries from SGX and the bourse would take action if any breach were found, it said.

(Additional reporting by Umesh Desai and by Kit Yin Boey and Daniel Stanton of IFR; Editing by Richard Pullin)
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