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楼主: sunday365

【MELEWAR 3778 交流专区】美丽华工业

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发表于 15-7-2007 11:59 AM | 显示全部楼层
TA 分析報告 - 續三

Power and Oil & Gas divisions - Diversification Strategy
The group continues to diversify its income stream investing in the next in-thing, which are the power and oil & gas industries. The group holds 70% stake in Siam Power Generation Compnay Ltd which holds a total licensed capacity of 450MW to built, operate and own power plant in Rayong, Thailand. The group would construct the 1st phase 185MW which is expected to start operation in 2009 and has signed the PPA with EGAT for 25 years, with fuel pass through and index to the US currency. Based on the current fuel price and currency, the average selling price is around US$0.0753/kwh which translates to RM0.26/kwh. Although non-committal, we believe the IRR of the project is above 15%,similar to the first generation PPA signed in Malaysia. Just to illustrate the value of such IPP to investor, we have made a rough calculation to find the value of the power division. Based on a flat US$0.0753/kwh and 180MW capacity for the next 22 years at 90% capacity, the power division would enhance the group's NAV by RM136mn (based on discount rate of 15%) or RM0.60 sen per share (Appendix 2).


Meanwhile, the group exposure to the Oil & Gas Sector will be spearheaded by M3nergy. As we have highlighted before, the group is the owner and operator of FPSO ships. With the oil and gas activities expected to pick-up and more new oil well coming on stream, we expect demand of FPSO to continue to be high. Hence, we could expect to see improvement in M3nergy profitability in FY08 as compared to FY07 earnings. The current rate for FPSO is around RM400,000 a day and expected to increase in the near future due to scarcity of ships and high demand. Note that, both of its FPSO ships contracts expires in 2008 and we could expect higher rates to be charged in the coming contracts.



[ 本帖最后由 mjchua 于 15-7-2007 12:03 PM 编辑 ]
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发表于 15-7-2007 12:06 PM | 显示全部楼层
TA 分析報告 - 續四

Engineering Division
Engineering division was what surprises us the most. The management indicates that the group internal engineering and construction arm has close to RM3.3bn worth of outstanding orderbook which derived internally. Table 3 illustrates the contracts in hand for the group's engineering and construction division. Note that, the group has also tendered the Penang Monorail projects. Although the management is optimistic on their success given the competitive pricing, we are less optimistic as we believe Scomi Engineering consortium is the front-runner due to the certain advantages such as having Penang state government body as one of the consortium partners. Even without the Penang Monorail, the group's engineering and construction division is expected to be extremely busy from in-house jobs. Based on the latest quarter result, the group engineering and construction division reported total revenue of RM30mn for 14-months cumulative. Hence, we believe the current orderbook of RM3.3bn is the highest achieved thus far. Assuming the group orderbook is over 6 years, the group would be reporting RM550mn of works per annum. Taking a minimum 1.5% pretax profit margin, the group engineering and construction division is expected to report net earnings of RM6.1mn in FY08.

Table 3: Orderbook

Projects Value (RMm)
Chip Mill project in Sabah 20.0
Melewar Still Mills Sdn Bhd 80.0
Mycron Steel Bhd Plant upgrade 120.0
M3nergy barite powder plant in Labuan 80.0
Maegma Steel Sdn Bhd Integrated HRC Steel Mill 3000.0
Total 3300.0




[ 本帖最后由 mjchua 于 15-7-2007 12:20 PM 编辑 ]
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发表于 15-7-2007 12:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
TA 分析報告 - 續五

Grossly Undervalued - Time to BUY
Prior to this we value the company using PER valuation using targeted PER of 7.0x based on 30% discount to industry PE of 9.9x to derived at a fair value of RM1.80. However, we believe the most appropriate valuation is to use sum-of-parts (SOPs) given that the group would be having 3 core businesses namely iron and steel, engineering and construction and power and oil & gas divisions. The other reasons that we are opting to use SOPs valuation is to show the potential of its new divisions namely the Iron Ore mining and power. However, given the new income stream would only come on stream beyond FY08, we have attached a discount of 20% to the group's SOPs valuation to reflect the execution risks, Hence, we derived at a higher fair value of RM2.70 which translate to a reasonable PE multiple of 10.5x based on fully diluted FY08 earnings of 25.8 sen compared to our previous RM1.80.

In addition, the group is committed to payout 50% of its net profit as well as 50% dividend received from listed subsidiaries or associates. Based on our earnings estimates, we are looking for the group to declare a gross DPS of 12 sen in FY08, which translates into a dividend yield of 7.9%. Coupled with the possible capital appreciation of 77.6% from the current price of RM1.52, the group total return exceeds 85.5%. Hence, we maintain our BUY recommendation.

Table 4: Melewar's Sum-of-Parts

FY08 Net profit (RMm)
12-Month PER (x)
Value
Steel 32.8 14.0 459.4
Construction 6.1 10.0 61.4
Associate - Gindalbie (NPV - 15% discount rate) 265.2 0.0 265.2
Associate - M3Nergy 1.5 14.0 21.0
Power - (NPV - 15% discount rate) 135.6 135.6
942.7
Net asset value (RM'm) 942.7
Borrowings (Company level) (174.0)
Share cap (m shares) - Fully diluted 227.0
NAV per share (RM) 3.39
20% Discount 0.69
Target Price 2.70
implied PER 10.5
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发表于 15-7-2007 12:31 PM | 显示全部楼层
Appendix 1: Gindalbie's Assumptions & Valuation
Potential 1.43 bn tonne

Scenario
Recovery (mn tonne) 250  
500750
Avg Magnetite (USD/tonne) 55 55 55
Gross production value (USDmn) 13,750 27,500 41,250
Cost recovery:
Operating @ USD30 7,500 15,000 22,500
Capex and Financing @ 15% of GPV (USDmn) 2,063 4,125 6,188
Pretax 4,188 8,375 12,563
Tax @ 35% (USDmn) 1,466 2,931 4,397
Net Attributable to Gindalbie after tax (USDmn) 2,722 5,444 8,166
Melewar’s portion @ 17% (USDmn) 463 925 1,388
Initial Investment Outlay (USDmn) 6 6 6
Enhancement (USDmn) 456 919 1,382
NAV @ RM3.50 per USD 1 (RMmn) 1,597 3,217 4,836
NPV 15%, 40 years 265 524 788
NAV per share 1.17 2.31 3.47
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发表于 15-7-2007 12:36 PM | 显示全部楼层
Appendix 2: SEPCO's Assumptions and Valuation
Potential 450 MW

Installed Capacity (MW) 180 360
Capacity Utilisation (%) 90 90
Capacity Utilisation (mn kw/h) 1,380 2,760
0.0753 0.0753
Revenue (USDmn) 104 208
EBIT Margin:
30% 31 62
Capex and Financing @ 15% of GPV (USDmn) 16 31
Pretax 16 31
Tax @ 35% (USDmn) 5 11
Net Attributable to SEPCO after tax (USDmn) 10 20
Melewar's portion @ 70% (USDmn) 7 14
Initial Investment Outlay (USDmn) 1 1
Enhancement (USDmn) 6 13
NAV @ RM3.50 per USD 1 (RMmn) 21 46
NPV 15%, 22 years 136 293
NAV per share 0.6 1.29
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发表于 15-7-2007 03:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
不好意思搞错了(是另一支股来的)

[ 本帖最后由 36 于 15-7-2007 09:58 PM 编辑 ]
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发表于 15-7-2007 03:18 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 36 于 15-7-2007 03:00 PM 发表
之前丰隆银行&新家坡银行的文告
不少人都认为即将会有不好消息。。。而下车
您怎么认为?


可以 post 上來看嗎 ? 是什麼不好的消息 ?
只是知道把這間公司拆開來賣的話(賣得干干淨淨) 也值 RM4.75
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发表于 15-7-2007 03:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 mjchua 于 15-7-2007 03:18 PM 发表


可以 post 上來看嗎 ? 是什麼不好的消息 ?
只是知道把這間公司拆開來賣的話(賣得干干淨淨) 也值 RM4.75

私募基金最喜欢用这招了
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发表于 15-7-2007 03:30 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 东邪 于 15-7-2007 03:23 PM 发表

私募基金最喜欢用这招了


是的 若我有很多很多錢的話 我也來這招
全面收購  全部拆開來賣  隨隨便便賺它個幾億
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 楼主| 发表于 15-7-2007 04:16 PM | 显示全部楼层
这个礼拜好多家报纸都在唱好MELEWAR. STAR BIZ,THE EDGE,星洲,中国报等.( 引用TA 的分析)
如果没有意外(外围因素)MELEWAR将再战高峰!
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发表于 15-7-2007 04:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 sunday365 于 15-7-2007 04:16 PM 发表
这个礼拜好多家报纸都在唱好MELEWAR. STAR BIZ,THE EDGE,星洲,中国报等.( 引用TA 的分析)
如果没有意外(外围因素)MELEWAR将再战高峰!


TA 的計算方法沒有把 MYCRON 計算進去
而且 TA 的計算錯了 把 M3nergy 的價值算少了很多
另外也把 Gindalbie 的市值打個 15% discount (而且是用 aud1.20 來計算, 現在是 aud1.42)

[ 本帖最后由 mjchua 于 15-7-2007 04:21 PM 编辑 ]
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发表于 15-7-2007 06:56 PM | 显示全部楼层
xi
原帖由 mjchua 于 15-7-2007 04:19 PM 发表


TA 的計算方法沒有把 MYCRON 計算進去
而且 TA 的計算錯了 把 M3nergy 的價值算少了很多
另外也把 Gindalbie 的市值打個 15% discount (而且是用 aud1.20 來計算, 現在是 aud1.42)


Mjchua你的消息很多一下。
谢谢分享。
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发表于 15-7-2007 07:03 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 clk125 于 15-7-2007 06:56 PM 发表
xi

Mjchua你的消息很多一下。
谢谢分享。


分享分享一下
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发表于 15-7-2007 09:08 PM | 显示全部楼层
看回 2006 的財務報表

這是 subsidiary companies 的細項 :

2006 (RM)
2005 (RM)
Cost
Quoted shares 42,000,000 42,000,000
Unquoted shares 32,940,676 24,633,170
74,940,676 66,633,170
Market value of quoted shares 67,549,368 126,655,064

subsidiary companies 包括 :

Name 2006 (%)
2005 (%)
Mycron Steel Berhad 52.4 52.4
Mycron Steel CRC Sdn. Bhd. 52.4 52.4
Silver Victory Sdn. Bhd. 52.4 -
Melewar Steel Services Sdn.Bhd. 100 100
Melewar Steel Assets Sdn. Bhd. 100 100
Melewar Steel Tube Sdn. Bhd. 100 100
Melewar Steel Mills Sdn. Bhd. 100 100
Melewar Integrated Engineering Sdn. Bhd.
70 70
Melewar Steel Ventures Ltd. 100 100
Melewar Steel Engineering Sdn. Bhd.
100 -
M - Power TT Ltd. 100 -
Mperial Power Ltd. 100 -
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发表于 15-7-2007 09:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
Melewar 是於 14June2005 通過 Melewar Steel Ventures Ltd. 買入 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. 的股權
47,087,009 股 (15.58%) 共 AUD4,237,830.81


Gindalbie Metals Ltd. 的資料
Gindalbie is a company incorporated in Australia on 16 July 1993 andlisted on the Australian Stock Exchange on 12 April 1994. The companyis principally involved in gold and iron ore exploration and productionin Western Australia and aims to become a mid-tier Australian miningcompany through exploration, joint ventures and strategic acquisitions.
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发表于 15-7-2007 09:18 PM | 显示全部楼层
2006 年的財報還有提到 investment in associates

2006 (RM)
Quoted share in Malaysia at cost 41,765,599
Share of profit of associated company (net of taxation) 926,364
Negative goodwill recognised on acquisition 41,451,542
Share of pre-acquisition profit 2,055,626
Share of net assets 86,199,131
Market value of quoted share 26,741,475
The Group’s interest in the associated company is analysed as follow:
Share of net assets 86,199,131
Negative goodwill on acquisition (41,451,542)
Negative goodwill credited to retained profit 41,451,542
86,199,131
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发表于 15-7-2007 09:21 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 #76 mjchua 的帖子

Investment in associates 只有 M3Nergy 的 21.54%
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发表于 15-7-2007 10:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 mjchua 于 15-7-2007 03:18 PM 发表


可以 post 上來看嗎 ? 是什麼不好的消息 ?
只是知道把這間公司拆開來賣的話(賣得干干淨淨) 也值 RM4.75

抱歉...不好意思搞错了(是另一支股来的)
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发表于 16-7-2007 10:21 AM | 显示全部楼层
起到 RM1.80 了 以價值投資法 是不是不止這個價錢 ?
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发表于 16-7-2007 10:36 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 mjchua 于 16-7-2007 10:21 AM 发表
起到 RM1.80 了 以價值投資法 是不是不止這個價錢 ?


你真的很用功,佩服!佩服!
我单从报章上获得的资讯报导里,就觉得是可以考虑。现在再加上你的资料,更加强信心,不过现在仍然观望中,因为希望可以以较低的价格购买。
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