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【PADINI 7052 交流专区】巴迪尼控股

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发表于 9-7-2008 08:53 PM | 显示全部楼层
我在Dubai看过那变得VINCCI,生意很好,放长远看吧.
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发表于 9-7-2008 09:40 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 ken8288 于 9-7-2008 08:53 PM 发表
我在Dubai看过那变得VINCCI,生意很好,放长远看吧.


这就是我对这公司有兴趣的原因之一  
介意说说你看到的情况吗? 何以见得生意好呢?
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发表于 9-7-2008 09:40 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 ken8288 于 9-7-2008 08:53 PM 发表
我在Dubai看过那变得VINCCI,生意很好,放长远看吧.


这就是我对这公司有兴趣的原因之一  
介意说说你看到的情况吗? 何以见得生意好呢?
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发表于 10-7-2008 11:45 AM | 显示全部楼层
派息了,很好。继续放在床底下。
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发表于 10-7-2008 11:53 AM | 显示全部楼层

回复 41# ken8288 的帖子

那你有没有看到他的同行bonia呢???
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发表于 11-7-2008 05:02 PM | 显示全部楼层
对于padini,我个人觉得值钱的是管理层,
我想它可以是不错的防守股,
买价很大程度上决定你的回酬,
所以要购买padini的朋友需要注意一下
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发表于 11-7-2008 05:18 PM | 显示全部楼层
简单的谈一下Padini的管理层吧。Padini是家族生意,从早期的代步生产OEM,一直不停的改革,直到现在的品牌生产商,一路走来都算不错。管理层如果稍微落后,还是慢一点,早已经就被淘汰了。其实时装业,这个也是免不了的趋势。当然,香港演员林青霞的Esprit在这一点就做到非常非常出色。当然,直到目前为止,Padini是不能和Esprit比较的,也比不上来。
可是为了避开那么强烈的衣装竞争,Padini通过Vinci Ladies' Specialist就开始做起鞋业来了。而直到了现在,这个鞋业已经占据Padini整个集团42%的营业额,却为公司集团提供了57%的盈利。在整个Pricing Strategy标价的政策里,Vinci做得非常不错。Vinci的鞋子和款式设计,都给人觉得是一种“名牌”。可是Vinci的价格又比一些名牌鞋子的价格来得低一些,所以受到大众的喜爱,特别是Office Lady的钟爱。虽然有人说,Vinci的鞋子不耐穿,穿几下就坏了。可是如果我们往另外潮流一方面看,鞋子就是潮流,穿太久也的确不好,会过时。所以坏了,就买新的一双啦!反正潮流一直在变,价钱比起来,也比较便宜。
说到潮流,非常值得一提的是管理层的开发新设计,旧设计淘汰的管理能力。也就是说,管理层对潮流节奏必须非常敏感。货物不能收太久,要不然一被时代淘汰,那么就一文不值了。Padini在这一方面的功夫还做得不错,虽然还可以更好。
Padini在2005年的Inventories大约是51mil,可是却只是Write Off了300k的存货。
另外可以看得到的是,Padini的Revenue是大约290mil。所以货物周转做得非常不错,以理想的情况看来,货物只要2-3个月,就可以完全卖出去了。这里能够看到管理层的能力。

另外公司也开始开发了Franchising的生意。这个可是生意届最好的赚钱方式。虽然这个还算起步,不过如果成功,那么要像Esprit这样,让投资者有这样高的评估也不难。Padini在亚洲,中东地区都有将Vinci/VNC,Seed,Padini Authentics以Franchise的方式经营。Franchising可是品牌的保证之一。
外表看来是不错了,接下来,我们再探讨公司的价值。
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发表于 11-7-2008 05:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
投资买的是将来公司的表现。所以在还没有投资的时候,我们必须对公司的前景充满信心。单单是有信心是不足够的,而要有巨大的信心。要对公司有那么好的信心,我们对公司的赚钱能力就要有足够的了解。
Padini过去大致上的表现如下:
年份
盈利
股东资金
ROE(1)
2003
9.3mil
82mil
2004
6.3mil
87mil
7.6%
2005
18mil
99mil
20%
2006
28mil
119mil
28%
2007(F)
20mil
139mil(2)
16%
注:
(1)ROE的算法,是由这一年FYE的盈利,除以前一年FYE的股东资金。
(2)股东资金的计算法还没有扣除股息。

以现在2006年4月17日的每股价格RM 4.32看来,公司的市值大约是RM 270mil。以270mil来购买139mil的公司,是否值得?以Asset valuation看来,公司的资产如下:
PPE: 35mil
Brand Name: 1.2mil
Current Net Asset: 86mil
=
+ Inventories: 51mil
+ Receivables: 22mil
+ Short Term Investment:31mil
+ Cash: 14mil
- Payables: 27mil
- Borrowings: 2mil
- Tax liabilities: 3mil

从这里我们可以看到,公司的Non-Current Asset其实不是占据很大的部分,而Current Net Asset反而占据了股东资金的70%。这就是说,公司流动性的资产很大。公司的价值也应该从这流动性资产探讨。关于流动性资产的探讨,我已经说过管理层的潮流开发能力,和货物周转的管理方式了。尽管服装业的竞争力很强,我们就假设公司还是有能力达到平均15%的ROE(如果Franchising成功,这个应该不难达到),以270mil来购买这119mil的资产,要6年才能够Break-even。如果公司能够创造平均20%的ROE,那么这也要4.5年才Break-even。所以只能说,这个价位,只是算合理价格。如果将来出了什么差错,那么保本时间可能需要更长。现在的价位,Margin of Safety安全边际不够多。如果我们以Cash Earnings Capabilities 来看,公司每一年可以创造平均20mil的现金。这个就是7%的报酬。这个价位的吸引力不太大,只能说合理。


以上两篇文章就是uncle ho的旧作品了
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发表于 11-7-2008 05:25 PM | 显示全部楼层
711 VOL 384k LOT
收市RM2.58

716 派钱 10SEN
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发表于 11-7-2008 05:56 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 11-7-2008 06:17 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 48# 悶蛋 的帖子

好贴,很好的分析,可惜这类好分享越来越少了。。。。。。。。。
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发表于 13-7-2008 09:52 AM | 显示全部楼层
新年要到了,很多成衣商家都給不少的折扣!我知道的是這樣: PADINI-PDI,PADINI,VINCCI,P&CO,MIKI,SEED 有30%的折扣(新貨),imagine normal price是79.90的!(只要去到工廠就有了!) ELBA-Edwin,elba,adax 有50%discount,不過大多數是屯貨。在hutton lane的office和warehouse. TGL-powerpuff,kiki-lala,cartoon network (normal price 40%,best buy 20%) Hytex-world of baby,world of cartoon,這個好想要有staff在裏面才能買到。。

小弟我不明白以上的句子代表什么意识?
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发表于 22-7-2008 01:29 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 44# 神我人 的帖子

我收在床底一年了。。。
如果不是最近发布派息,我都忘了我有买这粒股。。。

我看还是把他收到年老为止。。。
提议年轻人不要买这股,因为很闷的。。
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发表于 6-8-2008 06:08 PM | 显示全部楼层
老板丹斯里赛Mokhtar很爱搞相关人士交易。。。

高价收购士乃机场 马矿业暴跌22% 2008/08/05 18:14:10
●南洋商报

(吉隆坡5日讯)马矿业(MMCCorp,2194,主板贸服股)收购士乃机场终站服务私人有限公司及艾益资源(AIRB,8516,主板基建股)的计划因涉及相关人士交易、价格过高及买入时机不对而被市场看淡,导致该股今早一度猛跌逾20%,分析员也调低该股评级。

马矿业昨日宣布进行两项重大的收购计划,以19亿5千万令吉士乃机场终站服务私人有限公司,及以总额2亿4千万令吉或每股现金0.90令吉,自愿性全面献购艾益资源所有普通股及债券。

这项收购活动非但没有激励股价走势,反而因市场不看好,导致马矿业的股价一度暴跌20%或0.55令吉,至2.18令吉,成为主要下跌股之一,闭市时以2.12令吉挂收,跌0.61令吉或22%。

士乃机场终站服务及艾益资源,都是马矿业大股东丹斯里赛莫达控制的公司,因此这两项收购都被视为相关人士交易(Related Party Transactions)。

士乃机场城计划未有定案

除了涉及相关人士交易,士乃机场的收购价格过高也备受市场争议,侨丰投资研究分析员吴宝云说,收购价格或不应该高于14亿8000万令吉。

他说,士乃机场拥有2718.68英亩的发展地皮,经估价师计算价值,土地值22亿2900万令吉,发展总值为95亿令吉,但士乃机场城的计划还未有定案,也还未有任何土地发展计划。

同时,该块地皮现已栽种成熟的油棕,以种植地每平方尺7令吉至8令吉的价格计算,该块地皮可能仅价值8亿8819万令吉;22亿2900万令吉的价值,可能是以住宅地的价格计算,但只要士乃机场城的计划启动,价值很可能被重估。

“我们相信马矿业已支付过高的价格。此外,透过发行每股2.80令吉的新股买入士乃机场,明显较4.20令吉的合理价格低,这或导致股东认为,马矿业仅值2.80令吉。”

天安保险总投资长潘克佳也说:“收购士乃机场的价格偏高,价值要兑现需很长的时间。”

http://www.nanyang.com/index.php?ch=7&pg=12&ac=869671


涉及相关人士交易引忧虑 2008/08/05 18:14:14
●南洋商报

同时,丹斯里赛莫达透过上述计划再次涉及相关人士交易,也引起市场忧虑。

Semarak Restu私人有限公司拥有士乃机场70%的股权,其余30%则由Suria Kemboja私人有限公司持有,这两家公司都分别和赛莫达及马矿业有关联,是马矿业的间接大股东,因此这项计划属于相关人士交易。

然而,投资者向来对相关人士交易并不热衷。

侨丰投资研究分析员吴宝云说,投资者会负面看待相关人士交易。

风险提高

“此外,相关人士交易提高了马矿业的风险,我们因此把加权平均资本成本从9.3%调高至9.9%。”

吴宝云也相信,会有更多的相关人士交易尾随而来,该行因此将公司评级下调至“中和”,目标价格为3.30令吉。

http://www.nanyang.com/index.php?ch=7&pg=12&ac=869673


恐受马矿业负面效应波及 贸易风种植评级下修 2008/08/06 10:02:24
●南洋商报 周汉文

(吉隆坡5日讯)马矿业(MMCCorp,2194,主板贸服股)在一项相关人士交易活动中,以偏高价格收购士乃机场及艾益资源(AIRB,8516,主板基建股)所引发的负面效应,恐将波及同一股东控制的贸易风种植(TwsPlnt,6327,主板种植股),分析员并因此下修该股投资评级及目标价位。

亚欧美投资银行指出,贸易风种植与马矿业一样,都是由土著富商丹斯里赛莫达控制的公司,随着马矿业昨日在一项相关人士交易活动中,收购由赛莫达控制的士乃机场及艾益资源,已为同样份属赛莫达旗下公司的贸易风种植蒙上一层阴影。

这是因为市场担心,贸易风种植可能会成为下一个相关人士交易的目标。

该投资银行表示,除了相关人士交易活动的隐忧,原棕油价格显著回落及营运成本高涨,也是促使该行下调贸易风种植股票投资评级及目标价位的主因。

该投银今日发表的一份研究报告,将贸易风的投资评级从“买进”下调至“守住”,目标价位也从4.40令吉,大幅下修至3.36令吉。

该投银补充,贸易风种植的生产成本远比同业高,当前原棕油价格下滑的趋势,对该股相当不利。此外,生产成本(尤其是肥料及薪金)显著上涨,也是该股的另一负面因素。

马矿业昨日建议以19亿5千万令吉或高达6.6倍帐面价值比率的偏高价码,收购业绩蒙受亏损的士乃机场终站服务私人有限公司。

与此同时,马矿业也献议以总额2亿3900万令吉,或每股0.90令吉全面收购艾益资源(AIRB,8516,主板基建股)的所有普通股和债券,后者在柔佛持有两项水务处理经营权。

http://www.nanyang.com/index.php?ch=7&pg=12&ac=869924
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发表于 6-8-2008 07:13 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 54# Mr.Business 的帖子

请问....PDI跟Syed Mokhtar有关系吗???
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发表于 7-8-2008 11:40 AM | 显示全部楼层
Padini sales up despite slower spending
By Vasantha Ganesan Published: 2008/08/07


IT IS business as usual for Padini Holdings Bhd.

The fashion and fashion accessories retailer said it has not been hurt by slower spending, two months after a petrol price hike.

It even expects to continue making profits in the year ending June 30, 2009, said executive director Chan Kwai Heng.

Sales for all of its brands which include Padini, PDI, Miki, Vincci, P&Co are doing well and profit margin has not been affected.



"Up until this moment, our revenues are still trending upwards and we are not contemplating any reduction in our prices," Chan told Business Times in an interview.

"The group's brands are doing well generally and year-on-year, all brands have had positive same stores sales growth ... currently, our Vincci label is still the best performer in revenues."

In the nine months to March 31 2008, Padini's net profit jumped 58 per cent to RM40.03 million from the corresponding period last year.

This was achieved on the back of RM298.83 million in revenue, an increase of 24 per cent. It is due to report its fourth quarter figures at the end of this month.

Although he expects profits in 2009, Chan could not say for certain if it can sustain the growth momentum.

"I can hope but I really cannot say for sure; what is perhaps more certain is that for the coming year, we should still remain profitable," he said.

Sales will be backed by the opening of four additional Padini Concept Stores and two more Brands Outlet stores. Some RM15 million has been allocated for these openings.

As at June 30 2008, Padini has a total of 118 consignment counters and 69 free-standing stores in Malaysia. It also runs a cafe business in Mid Valley Megamall under the Seed brand name.

On sales promotion to attract more shoppers, he said: "Sales promotions will be on as per schedule and margins from these should not be any different from those earned in previous years."

Padini, Chan said, will continue to have its sales promotions as in previous years. In addition, it has also planned several stock clearance sales on a multi-brand level both in the promo areas of shopping malls as well as in-store.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/Thursday/Nation/ipadin.xml/Article/
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发表于 18-8-2008 10:25 PM | 显示全部楼层
请问这只股的合理价是多少。如何算?谢谢
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发表于 28-8-2008 06:05 PM | 显示全部楼层
Financial Results
Reference No PH-080827-34456

Company Name
:
PADINI HOLDINGS BERHAD
Stock Name
:
PADINI
Date Announced
:
28/08/2008
Financial Year End
:
30/06/2008
Quarter
:
4
Quarterly report for the financial period ended
:
30/06/2008
The figures
:
have not been audited

Converted attachment :



Please attach the full Quarterly Report here:
PHB FY08 Q4_Interim Financial Statements 30 June 2008.xls
PHB FY08 Q4_Explanatory Notes to Accounts.doc


Remark:




SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
30/06/2008

INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
30/06/2008
30/06/2007
30/06/2008
30/06/2007
RM'000
RM'000
RM'000
RM'000
1Revenue
85,799
76,260
384,634
317,173
2Profit/(loss) before tax
3,271
9,255
57,624
44,061
3Profit/(loss) for the period
2,646
6,074
42,712
31,442
4Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
2,646
6,064
42,712
31,403
5Basic earnings/(loss) per share (sen)
2.01
4.63
32.44
24.24
6Proposed/Declared dividend per share (sen)
10.00
10.00
15.00
25.00








AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7
Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent (RM)
1.3000
1.0900


Note: For full text of the above announcement, please access Bursa Malaysia website at www.bursamalaysia.com

Remarks :
The basic EPS for the 2007 financial year have been restated to reflect the increase in the overall number of ordinary shares issued arising from a sub-division of the Company's shares whichwas completed on 9th July 2007.

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmsweb.nsf/LsvAllByID/48256E5D00102DF4482574B300315997?OpenDocument
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发表于 29-8-2008 12:41 PM | 显示全部楼层

FY08 Results Review

OSK Investment Research
August 29, 2008


Staying on Course
Padini’s results came in 6.6% below our earlier revised FY08 forecast. Net profit was 56.4% down y-o-y in 4QFY08, mainly due to seasonally low earnings and higher-than-expected new store opening expenses. Despite the poor showing, we are still positive on Padini prospect’s going forward given the extended carnival sales period and higher sales volume from additional outlets. Maintain BUY with a TP of RM3.40.

Below expectation. As expected, Padini’s 4Q results made up only 6.2% of our full-year sales forecast due to seasonal factors. FY08 results were 6.6% below our expectation. Given ballooning operating expenses (+25% y-o-y) and higher finance cost (+113% y-oy), net profit plunged 56.4% y-o-y in 4QFY08, although revenue jumped 12.5%. The higher operating expenses were attributed to the increase in total floor space by 125,000sf due to its store expansion. FY08 net profit jumped 36% y-o-y on the back of the 21.3% rise in sales, with 9MFY08 sales constituting 93.8% of full year sales.

Store expansion. We think the company’s decision to invest more now is to tap on the cheaper rental rates during the current unfavourable economic scenario. Vis-à-vis 3QFY08, revenue and net profit were down 16.7% and 80.8% respectively. We note that Padini’s 4Q earnings are back to where they were in FY05/06 when 4Q earnings were in the range of RM2m to RM3m.

Poor margin in 4QFY08. Due to the higher new store openings expenses, EBIT margin plunged to 9.5% in 4QFY08 from 18.6% in 3QFY08. The sharply lower margin was also contributed by the write-downs of slow-moving and off-season merchandise to net realisable values as well to account for the shrinkage in inventory following the financial year-end physical stock take. It is worth noting that Padini has never failed to maintain its EBIT margin at the 15%-20% range since 2QFY05.

Maintain BUY. We maintain our FY09 and FY10 forecasts as we had toned down our numbers previously to factor- in weaker consumer sentiment and higher operational cost. Our TP is maintained at RM3.40 based on 1.8x CY09 BV/share and 10.9x CY09 EPS.


KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Brand outlets the star performer. The response to Padini’s brand outlets have been positive since the first store opened in 2006. There are currently 5 such outlets (see Table 1), with that in Ikano Power Centre contributing almost half of the total revenue from the brands outlets at ~RM21.6m in FYE2008. Note that only 2 stores operated for a full year in FYE2008. Although the outlets command lucrative margins (30% PBT margin vs 23% for a multi-brand store), we think there is room to grow as management will be more selective in selecting consignors to ensure that the merchandise commands better margin. In addition, Padini will be adding its own products (using other brand names) to its brands outlets, which further enhances margins. With these, we see business at Padini’s 100%-owned subsidiary, Yee Fong Hung, improving significantly (the brand outlet business is parked under Yee Fong Hung S/B). Given that these outlets are targeted at the lower income group in contrast to the multi-concept and single brand stores targeting the mid-high income group, brand outlets hold promise for the group as Padini is now targeting all income levels (as multi-concept and single stores target the mid-high end while the brand outlets target the lower end market), especially during a time when consumers are likely to divert their spending to lower priced products. We understand that the selling prices of products in the brand outlets are at least 50% cheaper than Padini’s house brands and on top of that, there are also promotions such as Buy-2-free-1. In our opinion, the brand outlets will eventually be the group’s other revenue driver.

Table 1: Padini’s brands outlets in various shopping malls

Shopping MallsDate of opening
Ampang PointDec ‘06
Ikano Power Centre6th July ‘07
Bukit Tinggi24th Nov ‘07
Dataran Pahlawan2nd Feb ‘08
East Coast Mall30th Apr ‘08
Queensbay Mall30th July ‘08


No sign of sales slowing. Our talk with the management recently surprised us as Padini’s sales remained resilient despite many signs that inflation had dampened consumer spending. While its 4QFY08 results were affected by seasonal factors and higher new openings expenses, we gather that all the outlets have performed well, with average same-store sales growth of 9.8% y-o-y. Y-o-y July and June sales posted double digit growth. According to the management, the company did not have to offer special discounts or implement specific strategies to attract customers as the management does not believe impulse buying could bring about short term profit. We think that its stable results are backed by its unique business model, ie (1) the idea of multi concept stores which are able to draw the crowd better via the cross-selling by housing all its brands under a single roof (2) different types of stores targeting different market segments (multi-concept stores and stand alone stores targets mid-high end markets whereas its brand outlets target the lower-end market, (3) outsourcing model, which helps Padini to save a lot in operation costs, (4) a wide range of products, ranges from accessories to apparel to footwear, (5) the myriad of designs (50 designs per month) for Vincci shoes, which is the main contributor, accounting for ~38% (FY07) of total revenue. Vincci shoes have relatively a lower turnover time of 4 months compared with the garment turnover time of 6-8 months. We envisage that Padini could do better in the coming quarter, driven by the earlier than expected carnival sales (July 5 – Sept 1).

Local expansion. There are 4 concept stores and 2 brand outlets in the pipeline encompassing total floor space estimated at 78,000 sf. The total estimated investment in these new outlets is RM15m to RM16m. Management has indicated that the rental rate for these outlets is cheaper in view of the current unfavourable economic scenario. We see sales from local business growing 15% to 17% in the next two years (FY09-FY10).

Table 2: New outlets in the pipeline
LocationDate of opening
The Curve (Concept store)Sept ‘08
One Borneo, Kota Kinabalu (Concept store)Oct ‘08
IOI Mall (new wing) (Brands outlet and Concept store)Dec ‘08
Bukit Indah (Johor) (Brands outlet and Concept store)Jan ‘09


...but not so aggressive overseas. Padini has not been expanding aggressively overseas as management believes that the domestic retail market has ample room to grow despite the sluggish economic environment due to rising inflation. We understand that the stringent corporate social responsibility and regulatory challenges in some foreign markets are key impediments. Nonetheless, the group has opened 11 franchise/dealer stores overseas in 1HFY08. It is also in negotiations with parties in Syria and Egypt and management expects to open few stores in these countries by end-2008. However, we do not expect the overseas units to contribute substantially in the near term, unless the group ventures into its own retail outlets overseas rather than through franchising.

[ 本帖最后由 scsiang82 于 29-8-2008 12:44 PM 编辑 ]
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发表于 26-11-2008 05:18 PM | 显示全部楼层
Financial Results
Reference No PH-081125-51708

Company Name
:
PADINI HOLDINGS BERHAD  
Stock Name
:
PADINI
Date Announced
:
26/11/2008
Financial Year End
:
30/06/2009
Quarter
:
1
Quarterly report for the financial period ended
:
30/09/2008
The figures
:
have not been audited

Converted attachment :



Please attach the full Quarterly Report here:
PHB FY09 Q1_Interim Financial Statements 30 September 2008.xls
PHB FY09 Q1_Explanatory Notes to Accounts.doc
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