【SingPost S08 交流专区】新加坡邮政 SINGAPORE POST LIMITED

臥龍先生

Singapore Post
BUY
Current Price: S$1.25
Target Price : S$1.43
Disposes HDB shop unit at Clementi Central
SingPost announced that it has completed the sale by tender of its HDB shop unit at Clementi Central for a total cash consideration of S$7.9 million.The net book value of the Property as at 30 June 2007 was S$2.6m, which gives SingPost a gain on disposal (after deducting agent commission and legal fees) of S$5.2m. Our earnings forecast has not factored in this gain as yet. We will revise our earnings forecast after SingPost releases its 1QFY08 results on 30 Jul 07.


The sale is part of SingPost’s constant review of the optimization of its retail network. The Clementi Central Post Office currently located there will be relocated.


Based on our assumptions of 0.7% terminal growth rate, 5.7% WACC (derived from risk-free rate of 2.8%, market risk premium of 7.9% and cost of debt after tax of 4.6%), our DCF valuation gives a fair value of S$1.43 per share, which we adopt as the price target.


SingPost aims for a dividend payout ratio of 80-90% of net profit, or a minimum of 5￠/share per year. We are forecasting FY08 dividend of 6.5￠, or a payout ratio of 85%. The resultant 5.2% dividend yield is attractive.


Maintain BUY on SingPost.

臥龍先生

Singapore Post
BUY
Current Price: S$1.24
Target Price : S$1.43

Robust 1QFY08 earnings for anattractive dividend play SingPost reported 1QFY08 net profit ofS$38.4m, up 24% yoy. This represents 26% of our FY08 forecast. Excluding one-time items, underlying net profit was up 14.9% yoy. Revenue rose 10% yoy.


Robust growth for mail. Mail revenue rose 10.9% (or S$9m) yoy, and accountedfor 75% revenue share, due to mail volume increasing 9.6%. This came onthe back of a strong 11.4 % rise in bulk mail (compared with a weak1.6% for public mail), due to a) Direct Mail’s increase of 10.9%,partly due to one-off contributions from mailing of GST Offsetpackages, service and conservancy charges notices and Dengue Feverletters (8% growth excluding these one-offs); and b) business andothers increasing 11.7%. Correspondingly, mail operating profit rose14.3% yoy.


Financial services drove retail segment. Retail revenue rose 10.6% (or S$1.4m) yoy, and accounted for 12% revenue share. Financial services
revenue surged 51.8%, and accountedfor 3.5% of overall revenue – remittances, EzyCash were starperformers, and insurance sales are also picking up.


Underlying operating margin improved from 1QFY07’s 37% to 37.7%, due tomail, logistics and retail operating margins widening from 1QFY07’s39.5%, 12.5% and 14.1% respectively to 40.7%, 13.0% and 14.4%respectively.


Robust cashflow generation. Net cash inflow from operating activities was S$49.4m,up from 1QFY07’s S$36.5m. Capex was a low S$2.5m, or 2% of revenue.Management expects the low capex to be maintained for subsequentquarters.


Dividend yield stays high. SingPost declared an interim dividend of 1.25¢ ps. SingPostaims to pay out 80-90% of net profit or a minimum of 5¢ ps per annum.We are forecasting 6.5¢ ps total dividends for FY08 (based on 83%payout ratio), giving a yield of 5.2%, which is higher than 3-mth SIBORof 2.6%.


SingPost remains a BUY. Our FY08 net profit forecast has factored in the
increase in postage rates effective18 Dec 06 and 1 Jul 07, as well as the onetime gain from sale ofClementi Central HDB shop unit. Management indicated that SingPost owns15 post office premises (others are leased), and these couldpotentially be sold if SingPost decides to relocate its branches (dueto operational reasons). SingPost is attractive based on our DCFvaluation of S$1.43 per share – we have assumed a terminal growth rateof 0.7%, a WACC of 5.7% (which factors in cost of debt of 4.6% and costof equity of 7.7%).

arnofren

我也把这个加进我的 watchlist

臥龍先生

SingPost

请问有那为大大有对SingPost这张股票有研究的？

DIVIDEND 14 Aug 2007 16 Aug 2007 31 Aug 2007 SGD 0.0125 ONE-TIER TAX  

DIVIDEND 3 Jul 2007 5 Jul 2007 18 Jul 2007 SGD 0.025 ONE-TIER TAX  

DIVIDEND 12 Feb 2007 14 Feb 2007 28 Feb 2007 SGD 0.0125 ONE-TIER TAX  

DIVIDEND 14 Nov 2006 16 Nov 2006 30 Nov 2006 SGD 0.0125 ONE-TIER TAX  

DIVIDEND 11 Aug 2006 15 Aug 2006 31 Aug 2006 SGD 0.0125 ONE-TIER TAX  

DIVIDEND 4 Jul 2006 6 Jul 2006 18 Jul 2006 SGD 0.0175 ONE-TIER TAX  

DIVIDEND 14 Feb 2006 16 Feb 2006 28 Feb 2006 SGD 0.0125 ONE-TIER TAX  

DIVIDEND 29 Dec 2005 3 Jan 2006 16 Jan 2006 SGD 0.1 ONE-TIER TAX  

DIVIDEND 15 Nov 2005 17 Nov 2005 30 Nov 2005 SGD 0.0125 ONE-TIER TAX  

DIVIDEND 12 Aug 2005 16 Aug 2005 31 Aug 2005 SGD 0.0125 ONE-TIER TAX  

DIVIDEND 4 Jul 2005 6 Jul 2005 15 Jul 2005 SGD 0.027 ONE-TIER TAX  

DIVIDEND 17 Nov 2004 19 Nov 2004 30 Nov 2004 SGD 0.023 ONE-TIER TAX  

DIVIDEND 23 Jul 2004 27 Jul 2004 6 Aug 2004 SGD 0.021 TAX EXEMPT  

DIVIDEND 6 Jan 2004 8 Jan 2004 19 Jan 2004 SGD 0.02105 NET OF TAX  

DIVIDEND 29 Aug 2003 2 Sep 2003 12 Sep 2003 SGD 0.054 LESS TAX

NoRehearsal

觉得投资SING POST, 要先回答两个的关键问题:

1) Basic Mail Service 开放之后, 是否会有强大对手来竞争? 毕竟公司3/4 以上利润来者这边.
如果可保持独家, 光股息就很有吸引力.

2) 公司能不能结合上新的E时代生意? 发挥出Delivery System 的价值? 新CEO 有IT 背景, 会有作为吗?

moneyS11

原帖由 NoRehearsal 于 20-10-2007 10:04 PM 发表
觉得投资SING POST, 要先回答两个的关键问题:

1) Basic Mail Service 开放之后, 是否会有强大对手来竞争? 毕竟公司3/4 以上利润来者这边.
如果可保持独家, 光股息就很有吸引力.

2) 公司能不能结合上新的 ...

我想请教一下，他们几时会让Basic Mail Services（BMS）开放？听说他们好象只是开放给BMS which＞or＝５０g的。
而且他们也好像只是部分性的开放，他们只把collection,sorting还有line haul开放吧了。。。
假设您有更多的资料，希望您能拿来和各位分享。。。
谢谢。

NoRehearsal

moneyS11,


新加坡政府已宣布决定liberation of BMS,From April 2007.
主要包括
(1) "Addressed mail" < 500gram.
(2) inbound and outbound international mails.


相关法律的修改在进行中.当法律的修改完成, 就可能发Postal Service Operator (PSO) license给潜在的申请者了.




So far, SingPost 还是唯一拿Public postal license (PPL license)的.
PPL 比 PSO 多一些国家角色的权利/责任, 象发行邮票, 编制POSTAL CODE等.
还多一个掌管HDB信箱Masterdoor keys的权利.



细节可读政府报告
http://www.ida.gov.sg/doc/Policies%20and%20Regulation/Policies_and_Regulation_Level2/FurtherLibPostalSvc/PostLib5Feb07.pdf

moneyS11

原帖由 NoRehearsal 于 29-10-2007 07:47 PM 发表
moneyS11,


新加坡政府已宣布决定liberation of BMS,From April 2007.
主要包括
(1) "Addressed mail" < 500gram.
(2) inbound and outbound international mails.


相关法律的修改在进行中.当法律 ...

谢谢

臥龍先生

Singapore Post
BUY
Current Price: S$1.23
Target Price : S$1.43

Steady 2QFY08 earnings growth for an attractive dividend play SingPost reported 2QFY08 net profit of S$39.7m, up 9.8% yoy. Excluding onetime items (comprising 2QFY08 sale of Clementi Central HDB shop unit), underlying net profit was up 10.9% yoy to S$34.8m. Revenue rose 8.8% yoy.


Direct mail was star performer in mail segment. Mail revenue rose 8.5% (or S$7m) yoy, and accounted for 73% revenue share, due to mail volume increasing 9.9% yoy. This came on the back of a strong 11.7% rise in bulk mail (80% share of domestic mail), due to a) Direct Mail’s increase of 15.1% (40% share of bulk mail); and b) business and others increasing 9.1%. Public mail (balance 20% share of domestic mail), on the other hand, recorded a mild 1.3% yoy volume growth. Correspondingly, mail operating profit rose 8.9% yoy.


Financial services drove retail segment. Retail revenue rose 9.0% (or S$1.3m) yoy. Financial services revenue surged 29.1%, and accounted for 47% of retail revenue. Remittances and unsecured lending together contributed 80%
of financial services revenue.


Underlying operating margin of 37.1% is similar to 2QFY07. Mail operating margin was 39.1%, vs 2QFY07’s 39.0%. Retail operating margin also widened marginally to 16.3% (from 2QFY07’s 16.2%). These were offset by logistics operating margin narrowing to 14.3% (from 2QFY07’s 15.5%), as logistics is a very competitive business.


Robust cashflow generation. Net cash inflow from operating activities was S$79.7m in 1HFY08, up from 1HFY07’s S$74.6m. 1HFY08 capex was a low S$7.8m, or 3.3% of revenue.


High dividend yield. SingPost declared an interim dividend of 1.25&#162; ps. SingPost aims to pay out 80-90% of net profit or a minimum of 5&#162; ps per annum. We are forecasting 6.8&#162; ps total dividends for FY08 (based on 85% payout ratio), giving a yield of 5.5%, which is higher than 3-mth SIBOR of 2.6%.


SingPost remains a BUY. We forecast 2HFY08 net profit to be driven by the increase in postage rates effective 18 Dec 06 and 1 Jul 07, as well as mail volume expansion. SingPost is attractive based on our DCF valuation of S$1.43 per share – we have assumed a terminal growth rate of 0.7%, a WACC of 5.8% (which factors in cost of debt of 4.6% and cost of equity of 8.2%).

臥龍先生

Singapore Post Ltd
HOLD: Price: $1.23 Target: $1.38

2QFY08 Results
Analyst: Chan Choon Jit

In Pursuit of Growth
Another positive quarter
SingPost reported 2Q08 underlying net profit of $34.8m (+10.9% Y/Y) and underlying EBITDA of $51.4m (+6.5% Y/Y) on revenue of $116m (+8.8% Y/Y). All segments posted higher revenue and operating profits. We had earlier assumed that operating margin would improve from FY07 due to operating leverage. As SingPost’s operating margin is relatively stable, we have thus trimmed our margin forecasts.

Domestic mail volume trending up
The main growth driver was domestic mail (Fig 1), which was bolstered by higher mail volumes and buoyed by price adjustments. Within domestic mail, direct mail volume increased 15.1% Y/Y while business and government mail volume increased 9.1%. We view the stronger mail volume as indicative of the strong economy and SingPost’s effective marketing of its direct mail services.

Actively pursuing growth
We continue to see SingPost growth initiatives bearing fruits, particularly in international mail (as publishers increase their posting volume) and financial services (Fig 1). The company is actively expanding its vPost and hybrid mail business in the region. A new CEO at the helm could also bring a new dimension to SingPost’s business.

Potential bonus from relocating post offices
Upside to our forecasts could arise from SingPost’s sale of any of its post offices. SingPost has an ongoing optimisation programme to relocate some of its post offices to locations which are ‘less prime’. We think the sale of Singapore Post Centre (SPC) is less likely as SingPost is currently benefiting from rising rental rates at SPC.

Reducing margin forecast, downgrade to HOLD

In line with its dividend policy, SingPost has declared an interim dividend of 1.25cts/share for 2Q08. We forecast FY09 dividend of 6.9cts/share and arrived at a target price of $1.38 (implied FY09 dividend yield of 5%). Downgrade to HOLD.

臥龍先生

Singapore Post (S$1.23) - 2QFY08 results - Delivers again
Core earnings in line. 2QFY08 core earnings of S$35.5m (+9.6% yoy) was in-line with consensus and our estimates. 1HFY08 core earnings formed 50% of our full year FY08 estimates. Reported S$39.7m earnings benefited from S$5.2m of exceptional gains from the sale of property at Clementi Central. This was another solid set of results with 8.8%yoy revenue growth with steady margins. As expected, quarterly DPS of 1.25 cts was also announced.





Revenue up 8.8% yoy. Logistics led growth at 11.5%yoy as a result of increased contributions from Speedpost and warehousing, fulfilment & distribution. Mail and Retail grew by 8.5%yoy and 9.0%yoy respectively. Mail revenue growth was driven by higher mail volumes and price adjustments. Retail revenue growth was driven by financial services (+29%yoy) and vPost on-line shopping transactions but these gains weredampened by decline in agency/bill presentment services.


Operating margin steady yoy at 37.4%. Slight operating margin improvements at Mail and Retail operations helped offset margin decline (-130bps yoy to 14.2%) at Logisticswhich faced increased competition and volume-related cost pressure.


New CEO likely to give SingPost greater regional focus. The new CEO, Mr. Wilson Tan joined SingPost just two weeks ago and did not indicate any change in SingPost’s strategic direction. Mr. Tan comes with a strong IT background and regional experience. We believe that Mr. Tan’s arrival will step up the regional agenda in SingPost’s current growth strategy. SingPost has been extending its regional reach with initiatives to grow the hybrid mail and vPOST businesses in the regional markets due to limited domestic growth prospects. Key initiatives implemented during 1HFY08 include hybrid mail expansion into HK and Thailand (in addition to Philippines and Malaysia) as well as continued vPOST regional rollout into Australia and India (in addition to Malaysia and Thailand).


Maintain Outperform and target price of S$1.41. Our target price is based on DDM (cost of equity: 6.5%, terminal growth: 1.5%). FY08 earnings estimate is raised by 3% to reflect gains in property sales. SingPost offers reliable earnings delivery and forward yields of 5.5-6.0% for the next three years. We see scope for dividends to surprise on upside given current net gearing of 1.2x vs. target of 2.0x.

NoRehearsal

1.

Date of notice to issuer *

19-11-2007

2.

Name of Substantial Shareholder *

The Capital Group Companies, Inc.

3.	Please tick one or more appropriate box(es): *
	Notice of a Change in the Percentage Level of a Substantial Shareholder's Interest or Cessation of Interest. [Please complete Part III and IV]

1.

Date of change of Interest

16-11-2007

2.

The change in the percentage level

From 13.9604 % To 12.9618 %

3.	Circumstance(s) giving rise to the interest or change in interest	# Others
	# Please specify details	Shares were disposed of through open market transactions at shareholder discretion

4.

A statement of whether the change in the percentage level is the result of a transaction or a series of transactions:

Shares were disposed of through a series of transactions from 18 October 2007 through 16 November 2007

huayang

感觉它成长空间有限,因为新加坡市场空间小,不知道对不对欢迎各位大大指教

tn728202

原帖由 huayang 于 24-11-2007 07:26 AM 发表
感觉它成长空间有限,因为新加坡市场空间小,不知道对不对欢迎各位大大指教

paypal在新加坡成立了區域公司
SINGPOST會不會配合來一起發展
這個非常重要

NoRehearsal

原帖由 tn728202 于 25-12-2007 09:43 PM 发表


paypal在新加坡成立了區域公司
SINGPOST會不會配合來一起發展
這個非常重要

哦?
只知道SINGPOST之前参与HARRY POTTER书的首发销售...........
Paypal 有需要到SINGPOST的地方吗?
有合作可能吗?

tn728202

原帖由 NoRehearsal 于 27-12-2007 09:59 PM 发表


哦?
只知道SINGPOST之前参与HARRY POTTER书的首发销售...........
Paypal 有需要到SINGPOST的地方吗?
有合作可能吗?

不是那樣的意思
PAYPAL是全球通用的收款方式
網路買賣很多都是指定paypal為主要收款方式
如果SINGPOST能給優惠于PAYPAL USERS
不知道會不會帶動業績？
或者以其他方式合作？

臥龍先生

Singapore Post – FY08 Results (Gregory)
Previous day closing price: $1.16
Recommendation: HOLD (reduced)
Target price: $1.20 (previous $1.38)

Growth ground to a halt in the last quarter
·
FY08 earnings rose 6.8% to $149.3m, versus our forecast of $151.5m (+8.1%).
·
The last quarter was particularly worrying, featuring a sharp QoQ drop in mail volume growth despite the CNY festival.
·
More significantly, the impact of a tight labour market and general inflation made its presence more apparent. Operating margins in all three business segments fell sharply, gaining momentum from 3Q08. For the full year, EBITDA margin fell by a full 100bps to 43.7%.
·
However, rental and property related earnings (+22% on the positive rental reversion cycle) were bright spots.

A hide-and-seek year ahead
·
We have revised down our forecasts, assuming slower revenue growth and EBITDA margin to fall further in FY09. In making these revisions, we considered
·
(1) a gradual loss of basic mail volume to new competitors, although a significant loss is unlikely, as SingPost will retain a key competitive advantage, and
·
(2) labour costs will stay at a high level for a whole 12 months, compared to the gradually rising trend that SingPost experienced since the beginning of last year.

HQ value unlocking still up in the air
·
Management is still exploring options. It is unlikely anything will happen until the unveiling of Master Plan 2008, expected in late May.
·
Certainly, the property as a call option is valuable to SingPost, especially if higher plot ratios are allowed (which currently tops the wish list of property owners).
·
On existing plot ratio of 4.2, recent press reports have highlighted the gross option value to SingPost to be $1-1.3bn, with net option value estimated at an incremental $0.20-0.25 a share.

Expectations of excess capital distribution could be some way off
·
However, if property values weaken further, the option value will also weaken.
·
And even if it goes ahead, the excess cash may only be returned next year as SingPost needs to come up with an option that will balance yield and growth.
·
Furthermore, a portion of the cash may be retained for M&A (one possible growth platform), further eroding the option value.

Downgrade to HOLD but stock will be supported by dividend yield
·
In the face of the slowing growth momentum, we believe there are too many ifs and buts to rely on the value-unlocking possibility to back a buy call.
·
However, a dividend yield of almost 6% (based on revised forecasts) should limit downside for the share price. In FY08, SingPost paid 6.25 cents a share in dividends or 80% of net profit, as per its usual policy. Our new target price is $1.20, based on a 5.5% dividend yield.

臥龍先生

Singapore Post (SingPost) reported creditable results amid a challenging environment, with revenue increasing 1.6% YoY to S$124.0m and net profit declining marginally by 0.5% to S$36.7m in 3Q09. This is in line with our expectations as both YTD revenue and net profit comprised 75% of our FY09 estimates. Revenue grew in all three business segments, with retail enjoying 5.5% growth, followed by logistics at 2.1% and mail at 1.5%. Rental and property-related income grew by 34% due to higher rental income from the Singapore Post Centre (SPC) and contributions from leasing of space at re-purposed post office buildings.

Slowing economy, but there are things to cheer about too.
The slowing global and domestic economy will undeniably impact SingPost's financials, and indeed the group's 3Q08 selling expenses rose by 43.5% YoY as higher provisions were made for doubtful debts. However, several measures unveiled by the recent Budget such as the Jobs Credit Scheme, reduction in corporate tax and property tax rebates will benefit SingPost as well. We are also seeing very proactive measures by the group to counter the downturn, such as greater cost containment, new services to spur revenue, as well as continued measures to re-purpose post offices.

Cost management is the key.
The group stepped up on cost management measures in the last quarter, such that all categories of costs except selling expenses moderated in growth. Labour and related expenses grew by 4.9% YoY compared to 7.2% in 2Q09 as SingPost kept a lid on temporary and contract labour costs, which is expected to moderate in the coming quarters. Tighter cost control in other areas such as promotional and marketing activities also resulted in lower expenses.

Maintain BUY.
The slowing global and domestic economy is probably the main concern for most stocks, including SingPost, but the defensive nature of the group's business means it will outperform the rest in a deteriorating and uncertain environment. Having taken into consideration weaker economic conditions and factors cushioning the decline in the group's financials, we are maintaining our estimates and therefore keep our fair value estimate of S$0.93. As such, we maintain our BUY recommendation for SingPost. A quarterly dividend of S$0.0125 per share will be paid, sticking to SingPost's
dividend policy of minimum S$0.05 per share a year, implying at least a 6.5% yield.

PaPerSoldier

Ta-Q-Bin 进入成为竞争对手

http://sg.ta-q-bin.com/service/taqbin/

价格没什么优势呢。。。
singpost还是便宜

马来风光

最近我注意singpost这个股票很久了
以前在的股价来说

它的yield很高

5.0++ %

每年四次 发息

每年都以样

62.5 per lot.

这支股票不错，

值得